Technical Trend Overview
ONGC’s technical trend has transitioned from a neutral sideways pattern to a mildly bearish trajectory. This shift is underscored by the weekly and monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators, which currently signal bearish and mildly bearish momentum respectively. The weekly MACD’s bearish stance suggests that short-term momentum is weakening, while the monthly mildly bearish reading indicates a more gradual decline in longer-term momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral on both weekly and monthly timeframes, offering no definitive overbought or oversold signals. This lack of RSI extremes suggests that the stock is not currently in an extreme momentum phase, but rather in a consolidation or transition period.
Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages
Bollinger Bands reinforce the bearish outlook, with both weekly and monthly readings indicating downward pressure. The stock price has been testing the lower bands, signalling increased volatility and a potential continuation of the bearish trend. However, the daily moving averages present a mildly bullish picture, indicating some short-term support and potential for price stabilisation or minor rebounds.
This divergence between daily moving averages and broader weekly/monthly indicators highlights the stock’s current technical complexity, where short-term buying interest may be counterbalanced by longer-term selling pressure.
Additional Technical Indicators
The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator aligns with the broader bearish sentiment, showing mildly bearish signals on the weekly chart and bearish on the monthly chart. This oscillator, which is designed to capture momentum shifts, confirms the weakening trend strength over the medium to longer term.
Conversely, Dow Theory readings are mixed: weekly data suggests a mildly bullish trend, while monthly data points to a mildly bearish trend. This split further emphasises the stock’s current indecision and the potential for volatility in the near term.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicators show no clear trend on either weekly or monthly timeframes, indicating that volume flows have not decisively supported either buying or selling pressure recently.
Price and Volatility Metrics
As of 6 January 2026, ONGC closed at ₹238.00, down 1.45% from the previous close of ₹241.50. The stock’s intraday range was between ₹235.75 and ₹246.55, reflecting moderate volatility. The 52-week high stands at ₹273.45, while the 52-week low is ₹205.00, placing the current price closer to the lower end of its annual range.
This proximity to the lower band of the 52-week range may attract value-oriented investors, but the prevailing technical signals counsel caution given the bearish momentum indicators.
Performance Relative to Sensex
Examining ONGC’s returns relative to the benchmark Sensex reveals a mixed performance picture. Over the past week, ONGC outperformed the Sensex with a 1.36% gain versus 0.88% for the index. However, over the last month, ONGC declined by 1.39%, underperforming the Sensex’s modest 0.32% loss.
Year-to-date, ONGC is down 0.94%, while the Sensex has gained 0.26%. Over the past year, ONGC’s return was -8.02%, significantly lagging the Sensex’s 7.85% gain. Longer-term returns tell a more positive story, with ONGC outperforming the Sensex over three and five years, delivering 62.46% and 150.66% gains respectively, compared to the Sensex’s 41.57% and 76.39%.
However, over the past decade, ONGC’s 47.64% return trails the Sensex’s robust 234.01%, reflecting challenges in sustaining growth amid sectoral and macroeconomic headwinds.
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Mojo Score and Grade Revision
MarketsMOJO assigns ONGC a Mojo Score of 58.0, reflecting a Hold rating, downgraded from a previous Buy grade on 8 December 2025. This revision reflects the recent technical deterioration and the mixed signals from momentum indicators. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating a large-cap status but with limited growth momentum currently.
The downgrade signals a more cautious stance from analysts, suggesting that investors should monitor the stock closely for confirmation of trend direction before committing to fresh positions.
Implications for Investors
The technical landscape for ONGC suggests a period of consolidation with a mild bearish bias. While short-term moving averages hint at some support, the broader weekly and monthly indicators caution against aggressive buying. Investors should weigh the stock’s attractive valuation near its 52-week lows against the risk of further downside if bearish momentum persists.
Given the mixed Dow Theory signals and neutral RSI, the stock may experience choppy trading in the near term. Volume patterns, as indicated by OBV, do not currently support a strong directional move, underscoring the need for patience and close monitoring of technical developments.
Sector and Industry Context
ONGC operates within the oil sector, which remains sensitive to global crude price fluctuations, geopolitical risks, and domestic energy policies. The sector’s cyclicality often translates into volatile price action for constituent stocks. ONGC’s technical signals should therefore be interpreted in the context of broader oil market trends and macroeconomic factors influencing demand and supply.
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Conclusion
In summary, ONGC’s technical parameters reveal a nuanced momentum shift with a mildly bearish undertone. The downgrade to a Hold rating by MarketsMOJO reflects this cautious outlook. While the stock’s valuation and long-term performance remain attractive, the current technical signals advise prudence. Investors should watch for confirmation of trend direction through MACD crossovers, RSI movements, and volume trends before making significant portfolio adjustments.
Given the oil sector’s inherent volatility, ONGC’s price action will likely remain sensitive to external factors, necessitating a balanced approach that considers both technical and fundamental perspectives.
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