ONGC Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Market Signals

Technical Trend Overview: From Mildly Bearish to Sideways

Recent technical assessments indicate that ONGC’s overall trend has transitioned from mildly bearish to sideways on a weekly basis. This suggests a pause in the previous downward momentum, with the stock consolidating around current price levels. The daily moving averages have turned mildly bullish, signalling some short-term positive momentum, while longer-term indicators remain cautious.

The stock’s current price of ₹241.50 is comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹205.00 but still below the 52-week high of ₹273.45, indicating a recovery phase that has yet to regain its previous peak levels.

MACD and Momentum Oscillators: Divergent Signals

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly chart. This divergence suggests that while short-term momentum is weak, longer-term trends are only slightly negative, reflecting a potential bottoming process. The MACD histogram has shown reduced negative momentum in recent weeks, hinting at a possible shift if buying interest sustains.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes is neutral, providing no clear overbought or oversold signals. This lack of directional RSI signals aligns with the sideways trend, indicating equilibrium between buying and selling pressures.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility Assessment

Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart show a sideways pattern, with the price oscillating near the middle band. On the monthly chart, the bands suggest a mildly bearish stance, reflecting subdued volatility and a lack of strong directional conviction. This consolidation phase often precedes a significant price move, making the current period critical for traders and investors monitoring ONGC.

Moving Averages and KST Indicator

Daily moving averages have turned mildly bullish, with the short-term averages crossing above longer-term ones, signalling potential upward momentum in the near term. However, the KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator remains mildly bearish on the weekly chart and bearish on the monthly chart, underscoring caution among longer-term investors.

This mixed technical landscape suggests that while short-term traders may find opportunities, longer-term holders should remain vigilant for confirmation of trend direction.

Volume and Dow Theory Signals

On-Balance Volume (OBV) is mildly bullish on the weekly timeframe, indicating that volume trends support recent price gains. However, monthly OBV shows no clear trend, reflecting uncertainty in sustained buying interest. Dow Theory assessments align with this, showing a mildly bearish weekly outlook and no definitive trend on the monthly scale.

Price Performance Relative to Sensex

Comparing ONGC’s returns to the Sensex reveals a nuanced performance. Over the past week, ONGC outperformed the Sensex with a 2.99% gain versus the benchmark’s 0.85%. However, over the one-month and year-to-date periods, ONGC lagged slightly, with returns of -0.78% and 0.52% respectively, compared to Sensex’s 0.73% and 0.64%. Over longer horizons, ONGC has delivered strong gains, with a 3-year return of 60.57% versus Sensex’s 40.21%, and a 5-year return of 159.12% compared to 79.16% for the benchmark. The 10-year return, however, trails the Sensex at 49.44% against 227.83%, reflecting sector-specific challenges over the past decade.

Mojo Score and Rating Update

MarketsMOJO has revised ONGC’s Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold as of 8 December 2025, reflecting the recent technical shifts and mixed fundamental signals. The current Mojo Score stands at 64.0, indicating moderate confidence in the stock’s near-term prospects. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, consistent with ONGC’s status as a large-cap heavyweight in the oil sector.

This downgrade from Buy to Hold suggests that while ONGC remains a core portfolio holding for many investors, caution is warranted given the technical uncertainty and sector headwinds.

Sector and Industry Context

ONGC operates within the oil industry, a sector currently facing volatility due to fluctuating crude prices, geopolitical tensions, and evolving energy transition policies. These external factors contribute to the technical indecision observed in ONGC’s charts. Investors should consider these macroeconomic variables alongside technical signals when evaluating the stock.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Support is likely to be found near the recent lows around ₹237.90, which also coincides with today’s intraday low. Resistance is expected near ₹242.65, the day’s high, and more significantly near the 52-week high of ₹273.45. A sustained break above this level could signal a return to bullish momentum, while a drop below the support zone may confirm a resumption of bearish trends.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

Given the current sideways trend and mixed technical signals, investors should adopt a balanced approach. Short-term traders may capitalise on the mild bullish signals from daily moving averages and OBV, while longer-term investors should await clearer confirmation from MACD and KST indicators before increasing exposure.

Risk management remains paramount, especially considering the broader oil sector’s sensitivity to global economic and political developments. Monitoring volume trends and momentum oscillators will be crucial in anticipating the next directional move.

Conclusion

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. currently exhibits a technical profile characterised by a transition from bearish to sideways momentum, with short-term bullish hints tempered by longer-term caution. The downgrade to a Hold rating by MarketsMOJO reflects this nuanced outlook. Investors should closely monitor key technical indicators such as MACD, KST, and moving averages, alongside volume trends, to gauge the stock’s next directional move.

While ONGC’s long-term returns remain impressive relative to the Sensex, recent underperformance over the one-year horizon and mixed technical signals suggest a period of consolidation and selective trading opportunities rather than aggressive accumulation.

In this environment, a disciplined approach combining technical analysis with fundamental awareness will best serve investors seeking to navigate ONGC’s evolving momentum landscape.

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