ONGC Sees Robust Call Option Activity Ahead of January Expiry Amid Mixed Price Action

Robust Call Option Volumes Highlight Investor Optimism

Data from the derivatives market reveals that ONGC’s call options with strike prices of ₹245 and ₹250 expiring on 27 January 2026 have emerged as the most actively traded contracts. Specifically, the ₹245 strike call saw 8,831 contracts traded, generating a turnover of ₹842.48 lakhs, while the ₹250 strike call recorded 8,398 contracts with a turnover of ₹468.61 lakhs. Open interest for these strikes stands at 5,877 and 4,597 contracts respectively, indicating sustained investor interest and potential accumulation ahead of expiry.

The underlying stock price at ₹239.10 as of 5 January 2026 places these call options slightly out-of-the-money, suggesting traders are positioning for a price appreciation beyond these levels within the next three weeks. This activity is particularly significant given ONGC’s recent price action, where the stock underperformed its sector by 0.49% and closed down 0.87% on the day, despite opening with a 2.21% gap up and touching an intraday high of ₹246.80.

Technical Indicators and Market Context

ONGC’s price currently trades above its 5-day and 20-day moving averages but remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages. This mixed technical picture suggests a short-term bullish momentum that has yet to translate into a sustained uptrend. The falling investor participation, with delivery volume dropping by 32.11% against the 5-day average, adds a note of caution, indicating that while speculative interest in options is rising, long-term conviction among shareholders may be waning.

Despite these headwinds, ONGC’s high dividend yield of 5.17% continues to attract income-focused investors, supporting the stock’s valuation in a volatile oil sector. The company’s large market capitalisation of ₹3,01,108.98 crores and its classification as a large-cap stock further underpin its appeal as a core portfolio holding.

Mojo Score Downgrade Reflects Cautious Outlook

MarketsMOJO’s latest assessment downgraded ONGC’s Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold on 8 December 2025, reflecting a more cautious stance amid mixed fundamentals and sectoral headwinds. The current Mojo Score of 64.0 indicates moderate confidence in the stock’s near-term prospects, balancing its strong market cap grade of 1 against recent volatility and subdued investor participation.

Investors should note that while the stock’s liquidity remains adequate for sizeable trades—based on 2% of the 5-day average traded value, supporting a trade size of approximately ₹4.14 crores—the recent day change of -1.39% signals some profit-taking or short-term pressure.

Expiry Patterns and Strike Price Concentration

The concentration of call option activity at the ₹245 and ₹250 strikes for the 27 January expiry suggests that traders are targeting a price recovery to these levels within the next three weeks. This expiry date is critical as it coincides with the end of the January derivatives cycle, a period often marked by increased volatility and positioning adjustments.

Open interest data further supports this view, with the ₹245 strike holding the highest open interest among call options, indicating a strong base of bullish bets. The ₹250 strike, while slightly less active, still commands significant interest, signalling expectations of a potential breakout above this psychological resistance level.

Sectoral and Market Comparisons

Within the oil sector, ONGC’s performance has lagged slightly behind peers, with the sector posting a modest 0.08% gain on the same day that ONGC declined. The broader Sensex index also fell by 0.15%, underscoring a cautious market environment. This relative underperformance may be driving the increased call option activity as traders seek leveraged exposure to a possible rebound.

Given the global energy market’s volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, ONGC’s positioning as a state-owned oil giant with substantial reserves and production capacity remains a key factor for investors weighing risk and reward.

Investor Takeaway: Balancing Bullish Options Activity with Fundamental Caution

The surge in ONGC call option volumes ahead of the January expiry highlights a clear bullish sentiment among derivatives traders, who are betting on a price recovery to the ₹245-₹250 range. This optimism is tempered by the stock’s recent underperformance relative to its sector and the broader market, as well as a downgrade in its Mojo Grade to Hold.

Investors should consider the mixed technical signals and declining delivery volumes as indicators of caution, while recognising the company’s strong dividend yield and large-cap status as stabilising factors. The options market activity may offer a tactical opportunity for short-term gains, but a comprehensive analysis of sector dynamics and global oil trends remains essential for longer-term positioning.

As expiry approaches, monitoring open interest shifts and price movements around key strike prices will be crucial for gauging whether the bullish momentum sustains or dissipates.

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