Punjab National Bank Gains 4.20%: 3 Key Factors Driving the Week’s Momentum

29 December 2025: Surge in Open Interest Amid Mixed Signals

On 29 December, Punjab National Bank experienced a notable 13.6% increase in open interest in its derivatives segment, rising to 67,313 contracts from 59,263 the previous day. This surge was accompanied by a futures volume of 60,533 contracts and a combined derivatives turnover of ₹1,91,124 lakhs, reflecting heightened market activity. Despite this, the stock price closed marginally lower at Rs.120.50, down 0.22%, underperforming the Sensex which declined 0.41% that day.

The divergence between rising derivatives interest and a slight price dip suggests traders were repositioning, possibly anticipating volatility rather than a clear directional move. The stock traded above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, signalling longer-term support, but remained below shorter-term averages, indicating short-term caution. Delivery volumes also fell sharply, down 41% compared to the five-day average, implying speculative trading dominated over genuine accumulation.

This mixed picture highlights a complex interplay between institutional confidence and short-term trader caution, with the derivatives market activity signalling potential for increased volatility in the near term.

Technical Momentum Shifts to Mildly Bullish

Also on 29 December, technical indicators revealed a nuanced shift in momentum. The stock closed at Rs.120.35, slightly down from the previous close, but key indicators such as MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and moving averages painted a cautiously optimistic outlook. The weekly MACD was mildly bearish, while the monthly MACD remained bullish, indicating short-term pressure but longer-term upward bias.

RSI hovered in neutral territory, suggesting consolidation without overbought or oversold extremes. Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts were bullish or mildly bullish, signalling price support and moderate upside potential. Daily moving averages showed tentative upward momentum, while volume-based indicators like On-Balance Volume (OBV) were bullish, implying institutional accumulation despite short-term price softness.

Relative to the Sensex, PNB had delivered strong medium-term returns, with year-to-date gains of 17.13% versus the Sensex’s 8.83%. The MarketsMOJO Mojo Score stood at 58.0 with a Hold grade, reflecting improved fundamentals and technical outlook but advising caution given mixed signals.

31 December 2025: Technical Momentum Upgrades to Bullish

By 31 December, Punjab National Bank’s technical momentum had strengthened to a bullish stance, supported by a 1.58% price gain to Rs.122.40. The stock approached its 52-week high of Rs.127.80, a key resistance level. Daily moving averages turned decisively bullish, signalling stronger upward momentum and improved investor sentiment.

MACD indicators showed a divergence with weekly MACD mildly bearish but monthly MACD turning bullish, suggesting medium-term traders were digesting gains while longer-term momentum improved. RSI remained neutral, indicating room for further price appreciation without immediate risk of a pullback. Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts were bullish or mildly bullish, confirming positive momentum with contained volatility.

Volume indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) were bullish on both weekly and monthly charts, confirming strong buying interest. Dow Theory assessments also supported a mildly bullish outlook across timeframes. PNB’s returns outpaced the Sensex significantly, with year-to-date gains of 19.12% versus 8.36% for the benchmark.

The MarketsMOJO Mojo Score improved to 65.0 with a Hold rating, reflecting the stock’s improving technical and fundamental profile. The Market Cap Grade remained at 1, consistent with its large-cap status.

1 & 2 January 2026: Steady Gains and Week Close

On 1 January, PNB continued its steady ascent, closing at Rs.123.95, up 0.28%, supported by a Sensex gain of 0.14%. The stock maintained its bullish technical posture with positive volume and moving average trends. On 2 January, the stock further advanced 1.17% to close at Rs.125.40, marking the week’s high and a total weekly gain of 4.20% from Rs.120.35.

During this period, the Sensex rose 0.81%, indicating that PNB outperformed the broader market by a significant margin. The stock’s volume remained robust, with over 1.2 million shares traded on 2 January, reinforcing investor interest. The technical indicators continued to support a positive outlook, with no immediate signs of overextension.

Key Takeaways

Positive Signals: Punjab National Bank demonstrated strong weekly gains of 4.20%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 1.35% rise. The surge in derivatives open interest and volume indicates heightened market engagement and potential for volatility-driven opportunities. Technical momentum shifted from mildly bullish to bullish, supported by improving moving averages, bullish volume indicators, and constructive MACD signals on the monthly chart. The stock’s relative performance over medium-term horizons remains robust, with year-to-date returns exceeding 19%.

Cautionary Notes: Despite the positive momentum, short-term indicators such as weekly MACD and KST oscillators showed mixed or mildly bearish signals, suggesting some near-term volatility and consolidation risk. Delivery volumes declined sharply earlier in the week, indicating speculative trading rather than strong long-term accumulation. The stock remains below its 52-week high of Rs.127.80, a key resistance level that must be decisively breached to confirm sustained upside. Investors should monitor price action closely around this level and watch for confirmation from momentum indicators.

Conclusion

Punjab National Bank’s performance over the week ending 2 January 2026 reflects a stock in transition, with growing bullish momentum tempered by mixed short-term signals. The notable increase in derivatives activity and improving technical indicators suggest that market participants are positioning for potential upside, while remaining cautious of volatility. The stock’s outperformance relative to the Sensex and its upgraded Mojo Score to Hold underscore improving fundamentals and technical outlook.

Investors and traders should adopt a measured approach, leveraging technical signals and volume trends to time entries and exits. The key resistance near Rs.127.80 remains a critical level to watch for confirmation of a sustained uptrend. Overall, PNB’s week was characterised by constructive momentum and active market participation, offering both opportunities and risks in the evolving public sector banking landscape.