Rajesh Exports Ltd. Faces Intensified Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Downgrade

Technical Momentum and Indicator Analysis

Rajesh Exports’ current share price stands at ₹162.95, down 2.51% from the previous close of ₹167.15. The stock has been trading within a 52-week range of ₹151.00 to ₹239.00, indicating significant volatility over the past year. Recent price action shows the stock failing to sustain levels above ₹169.00, its high for the day, and dipping to a low of ₹160.10, underscoring the prevailing downward pressure.

From a technical perspective, the trend has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture: while the weekly MACD remains bearish, the monthly MACD retains a mildly bullish stance. This divergence suggests short-term selling pressure amid some longer-term underlying strength, though the bearish weekly signal currently dominates market sentiment.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers no clear directional signal on either the weekly or monthly charts, hovering in a neutral zone that neither indicates overbought nor oversold conditions. This lack of momentum in RSI suggests the stock is in a consolidation phase but with a bearish bias given other indicators.

Bollinger Bands reinforce the bearish outlook, with both weekly and monthly readings indicating the stock is trading near the lower band, a sign of sustained selling pressure and increased volatility. Daily moving averages further confirm this trend, with the stock price consistently below key averages, signalling a lack of upward momentum.

Additional Technical Signals and Market Sentiment

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligns with the MACD’s mixed signals, showing a bearish trend on the weekly timeframe but a mildly bullish stance monthly. This suggests that while short-term momentum is negative, there may be some underlying strength that could support a potential recovery if market conditions improve.

Dow Theory assessments are mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating that the broader market trend for Rajesh Exports is weak. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows no clear trend on either timeframe, implying that volume is not confirming price movements, which often signals uncertainty among investors.

Overall, the technical landscape for Rajesh Exports is dominated by bearish signals, with short-term momentum indicators pointing to further downside risk. The stock’s inability to break above resistance levels and the consistent pressure below moving averages suggest that investors should exercise caution.

Comparative Performance Versus Sensex

Rajesh Exports’ price performance has lagged significantly behind the benchmark Sensex across multiple time horizons. Over the past week, the stock declined by 1.45%, slightly outperforming the Sensex’s 1.73% fall. However, over longer periods, the divergence is stark. The stock has lost 20.10% in the last month compared to a modest 3.24% decline in the Sensex.

Year-to-date, Rajesh Exports has fallen 11.42%, while the Sensex has declined by 3.57%. Over the past year, the stock’s return is a negative 22.40%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s positive 6.63% gain. The underperformance is even more pronounced over three, five, and ten-year periods, with Rajesh Exports down 81.35%, 66.42%, and 77.16% respectively, while the Sensex has delivered robust gains of 35.56%, 65.05%, and 241.54% over the same intervals.

This persistent underperformance highlights structural challenges facing Rajesh Exports and the Gems, Jewellery and Watches sector amid broader market growth.

MarketsMOJO Rating and Outlook

MarketsMOJO has downgraded Rajesh Exports from a Hold to a Sell rating as of 31 December 2025, reflecting deteriorating technical and fundamental conditions. The company’s Mojo Score currently stands at 41.0, placing it firmly in the Sell category. This downgrade is supported by a Market Cap Grade of 3, indicating moderate market capitalisation but insufficient to offset the negative momentum.

The downgrade signals caution for investors, as the stock’s technical indicators and price action suggest further downside risk. The bearish trend is reinforced by the daily moving averages and Bollinger Bands, while the lack of volume confirmation via OBV adds to the uncertainty.

Given the stock’s persistent underperformance relative to the Sensex and the Gems, Jewellery and Watches sector, investors should carefully consider risk exposure. The current technical setup does not favour a near-term recovery, and the downgrade aligns with a cautious stance on the stock’s prospects.

Conclusion: Navigating a Bearish Phase

Rajesh Exports Ltd. is currently navigating a challenging phase marked by bearish technical momentum and a significant downgrade in market sentiment. The mixed signals from monthly indicators offer a glimmer of potential recovery, but the dominant weekly and daily trends remain negative. The stock’s substantial underperformance relative to the Sensex over multiple timeframes further emphasises the risks involved.

Investors should monitor key technical levels closely, particularly the support near ₹151.00 and resistance around ₹169.00. Until a clear reversal in momentum is confirmed by improved MACD, RSI, and moving average signals, a cautious approach is warranted. The downgrade to Sell by MarketsMOJO reflects this prudent stance, advising investors to reassess their holdings in Rajesh Exports amid the current market environment.

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