Technical Trend Overview
The technical trend for Refex Industries has shifted from mildly bearish to bearish, underscoring a change in market sentiment. This shift is corroborated by multiple technical indicators that provide a mixed but predominantly cautious outlook. The daily moving averages currently reflect a bearish stance, suggesting that the stock’s short-term price action is under pressure.
On the weekly and monthly timeframes, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a bearish signal weekly, while the monthly reading remains mildly bearish. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights a nuanced momentum where short-term selling pressure is more pronounced than longer-term trends.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, shows no clear signal on both weekly and monthly charts. This absence of a definitive RSI signal suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, indicating a potential consolidation phase or indecision among traders.
Bollinger Bands and Price Volatility
Bollinger Bands, which measure price volatility and potential overextension, are signalling bearish conditions on both weekly and monthly charts. The stock’s current price of ₹323.40 is closer to its 52-week low of ₹315.25 than its high of ₹574.70, reflecting a subdued price range over the past year. Today’s trading range between ₹315.25 and ₹329.55 further emphasises this constrained volatility.
The bearish indication from Bollinger Bands suggests that the stock price is trending towards the lower band, often interpreted as a sign of downward momentum or increased selling pressure. This aligns with the broader technical trend shift and the MACD readings.
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Additional Momentum Indicators
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator presents a mildly bullish signal on the weekly chart but mildly bearish on the monthly chart. This divergence suggests that while short-term momentum may show some positive signs, the longer-term trend remains under pressure. The Dow Theory readings align with this, showing mildly bearish signals on both weekly and monthly timeframes, reinforcing the cautious stance.
On-Balance Volume (OBV), which tracks volume flow to confirm price trends, shows no clear trend weekly but a bullish signal monthly. This could imply that despite short-term price weakness, there is underlying accumulation or buying interest over the longer term, adding complexity to the stock’s technical picture.
Price Performance Relative to Sensex
Refex Industries’ price returns over various periods reveal a challenging recent performance compared to the broader Sensex benchmark. Over the past week, the stock recorded a return of -7.71%, contrasting with the Sensex’s marginal decline of -0.06%. The one-month return for Refex Industries was -10.98%, while the Sensex posted a positive 0.82% return.
Year-to-date and one-year returns for Refex Industries stand at -32.97% and -31.42%, respectively, whereas the Sensex has shown gains of 8.65% and 7.31% over the same periods. These figures highlight the stock’s underperformance in the short to medium term relative to the broader market.
However, the longer-term perspective offers a contrasting view. Over three, five, and ten years, Refex Industries has delivered returns of 570.82%, 1805.72%, and an impressive 17,967.04%, respectively, significantly outpacing the Sensex’s corresponding returns of 36.34%, 90.69%, and 229.38%. This long-term outperformance underscores the company’s historical growth trajectory despite recent headwinds.
Intraday Price Movements and Market Cap Context
On 25 Nov 2025, Refex Industries opened near its previous close of ₹325.20 and traded within a range of ₹315.25 to ₹329.55. The day’s price change was a decline of 0.55%, reflecting modest downward pressure. The company’s market capitalisation grade is noted as 3, indicating a mid-tier valuation status within its sector.
Given the current price proximity to the 52-week low, investors may be weighing the implications of the technical signals alongside fundamental factors affecting the Other Chemical products sector. The sector itself has experienced varied performance, influenced by global commodity prices, regulatory changes, and demand fluctuations.
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Implications for Investors
The recent shift in Refex Industries’ technical parameters suggests a more cautious approach may be warranted. The bearish signals from moving averages, MACD, and Bollinger Bands indicate that the stock is experiencing downward momentum in the short term. The lack of a clear RSI signal points to a potential consolidation phase, where price movements may remain range-bound before a decisive trend emerges.
Long-term investors might consider the stock’s historical outperformance and monthly bullish OBV signal as factors supporting a more patient stance. However, the short-term technical environment and recent price returns relative to the Sensex highlight the need for careful monitoring of market developments and sector dynamics.
Overall, the technical assessment of Refex Industries reflects a complex interplay of bearish momentum and underlying accumulation, requiring investors to balance risk and opportunity in their portfolio decisions.
Summary
Refex Industries is currently navigating a technical landscape marked by a shift towards bearish momentum, as evidenced by multiple indicators across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. While short-term signals point to caution, longer-term metrics and volume trends suggest potential for recovery or stabilisation. The stock’s recent underperformance against the Sensex contrasts with its strong historical returns, underscoring the importance of a nuanced analysis for investors considering exposure to this Other Chemical products sector company.
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