Saregama India Ltd Technical Analysis: Momentum Shifts Signal Bearish Outlook

Price Movement and Market Context

As of 20 Feb 2026, Saregama India Ltd closed at ₹340.90, down 1.83% from the previous close of ₹347.25. The stock’s intraday range was relatively narrow, with a low of ₹340.00 and a high matching the previous close at ₹347.25. This price level remains significantly below its 52-week high of ₹603.00, underscoring the stock’s ongoing struggle to regain upward momentum. The 52-week low stands at ₹316.90, indicating that the current price is hovering closer to the lower end of its annual trading range.

Comparatively, the stock has underperformed the broader Sensex index over multiple time horizons. For instance, over the past week, Saregama declined by 3.90%, while the Sensex fell by 1.41%. Over the one-month period, the stock’s return was -1.32% versus the Sensex’s -0.90%. Year-to-date, Saregama’s loss of 2.85% slightly outpaced the Sensex’s 3.19% decline. More strikingly, the stock’s one-year return is deeply negative at -31.77%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s positive 8.64% gain. However, over longer periods such as five and ten years, Saregama has delivered robust cumulative returns of 227.11% and 1258.17% respectively, outperforming the Sensex’s 62.11% and 247.96% gains, reflecting its historical growth potential despite recent setbacks.

Technical Trend Analysis

The technical trend for Saregama India Ltd has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling a deterioration in price momentum. This shift is corroborated by several technical indicators across different time frames.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

The weekly MACD remains mildly bullish, suggesting some short-term positive momentum. However, the monthly MACD is bearish, indicating that the longer-term trend is weakening. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights a conflict between short-term optimism and longer-term caution among market participants.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Both weekly and monthly RSI readings currently show no clear signal, hovering in neutral zones without indicating overbought or oversold conditions. This lack of directional RSI momentum suggests that the stock is consolidating, but the absence of a strong RSI signal means investors should not expect an imminent reversal based on momentum alone.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly charts are bearish, reflecting increased volatility and downward pressure on prices. The stock price is closer to the lower band, which often signals weakness and potential continuation of the downtrend unless a strong reversal occurs.

Moving Averages

Daily moving averages are firmly bearish, with the stock trading below key averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This alignment confirms the prevailing downtrend and suggests resistance at higher price levels, making it difficult for the stock to rally without a significant catalyst.

KST (Know Sure Thing) Indicator

The weekly KST remains mildly bullish, echoing the short-term MACD signal, but the monthly KST is bearish. This mixed reading reinforces the notion that while short-term momentum may offer some relief rallies, the broader trend remains negative.

Dow Theory and OBV (On-Balance Volume)

Dow Theory analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly chart and a mildly bearish trend on the monthly chart. Meanwhile, OBV readings on both weekly and monthly time frames show no discernible trend, indicating that volume is not confirming any strong directional move. This volume neutrality adds to the uncertainty surrounding the stock’s next directional move.

Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights

Saregama India Ltd currently holds a Mojo Score of 30.0, which corresponds to a Mojo Grade of Sell, downgraded from Hold as of 01 Aug 2025. This downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical and fundamental outlook for the stock. The company’s market capitalisation grade stands at 3, indicating a relatively modest market cap within its sector.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the Media & Entertainment sector, Saregama faces competitive pressures and evolving consumer preferences that have impacted its stock performance. The sector itself has seen mixed results, with some companies benefiting from digital transformation while others struggle with legacy business models. Saregama’s technical indicators suggest it is currently on the weaker side of this spectrum.

Investor Considerations and Outlook

Given the bearish technical trend and the downgrade in Mojo Grade, investors should approach Saregama India Ltd with caution. The lack of strong RSI signals and neutral volume trends imply that the stock may continue to consolidate or decline further before any meaningful recovery. The divergence between short-term mildly bullish indicators and longer-term bearish signals suggests that any rallies may be short-lived without fundamental improvements.

Long-term investors may find value in the stock’s impressive five- and ten-year returns, but near-term technical challenges and sector headwinds warrant a conservative stance. Monitoring key support levels near ₹316.90 and resistance around the 50-day and 200-day moving averages will be crucial for timing any potential entries or exits.

Summary

Saregama India Ltd’s technical landscape is characterised by a clear shift towards bearishness, with multiple indicators signalling weakening momentum. While short-term oscillators like weekly MACD and KST offer mild bullish hints, the dominant monthly and daily trends remain negative. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over recent periods, combined with a Mojo Grade downgrade to Sell, underscores the need for prudence among investors.

For those considering exposure to the Media & Entertainment sector, it is advisable to weigh Saregama’s current technical challenges against its long-term growth history and explore alternative opportunities that may offer more favourable risk-reward profiles.

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