Saregama India Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Bearish Signals

Technical Trend Overview and Price Momentum

The stock’s technical trend has deteriorated from mildly bearish to outright bearish, reflecting growing caution among traders and investors. The daily moving averages have turned bearish, signalling that short-term price momentum is weakening. This is corroborated by the weekly and monthly KST (Know Sure Thing) indicators, both firmly bearish, indicating that momentum across multiple timeframes is declining.

Price action today saw Saregama India Ltd trading within a range of ₹342.35 to ₹353.80, closing near the lower end of the day’s spectrum. The 52-week high remains at ₹603.00, while the 52-week low is ₹316.90, highlighting the stock’s significant volatility over the past year. The current price is closer to the lower end of this range, underscoring the recent downward pressure.

MACD and RSI Signals

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains mildly bullish, suggesting some underlying positive momentum in the medium term. However, the monthly MACD is bearish, indicating that the longer-term trend is weakening. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings often signals a transitional phase where short-term rallies may be countered by broader selling pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of momentum in RSI suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, but the absence of a bullish RSI signal adds to the cautious outlook.

Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages

Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts are mildly bearish, indicating that price volatility is skewed towards the downside. The stock price is trending near the lower band, which often acts as a support level but also signals potential for further declines if breached decisively.

Daily moving averages have turned bearish, with the stock trading below its short-term and medium-term averages. This technical setup typically suggests that sellers have the upper hand in the near term, and any rallies may face resistance at these moving average levels.

Volume and Dow Theory Analysis

On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis shows a mildly bearish trend on the weekly chart, indicating that volume is not strongly supporting recent price moves. The monthly OBV shows no clear trend, suggesting a lack of conviction among investors over the longer term. This volume pattern aligns with the cautious technical stance.

Dow Theory assessments on weekly and monthly timeframes are mildly bearish, reinforcing the view that the stock is in a corrective phase. This theory, which focuses on the confirmation of trends through price action, suggests that the current downtrend may persist unless significant buying interest emerges.

Comparative Returns and Market Context

Despite the recent technical weakness, Saregama India Ltd’s long-term returns remain impressive. Over the past 10 years, the stock has delivered a staggering 1,333.65% return, vastly outperforming the Sensex’s 259.46% gain over the same period. Even over five years, the stock’s return of 237.41% eclipses the Sensex’s 60.30%.

However, the recent one-year return of -33.95% contrasts sharply with the Sensex’s positive 8.52%, highlighting the stock’s underperformance in the near term. Year-to-date and one-month returns are also negative at -2.39% and -2.77% respectively, while the Sensex has declined by 3.04% and 1.20% over the same periods. The one-week return bucked this trend with a positive 4.10% gain, outperforming the Sensex’s -1.14% loss, but this appears to be a short-lived rebound within an overall bearish context.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

Saregama India Ltd’s current Mojo Score stands at 30.0, reflecting a Sell rating. This represents a downgrade from the previous Hold grade as of 1 Aug 2025, signalling a deterioration in the stock’s fundamental and technical outlook. The Market Cap Grade is 3, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers in the Media & Entertainment sector.

The downgrade aligns with the technical indicators pointing to increased downside risk. Investors should weigh the stock’s strong historical performance against the current bearish momentum and cautious volume patterns.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

In summary, Saregama India Ltd is currently navigating a challenging technical environment. The shift from mildly bearish to bearish technical trends, combined with bearish moving averages and mixed MACD signals, suggests that the stock may face further downward pressure in the near term. The neutral RSI readings and mildly bearish Bollinger Bands reinforce this cautious stance.

While the stock’s long-term returns remain exceptional, recent underperformance relative to the Sensex and a downgrade in Mojo Grade to Sell highlight the risks investors face. Volume trends and Dow Theory signals further suggest a lack of strong buying conviction at present.

Investors should monitor key support levels near the 52-week low of ₹316.90 and watch for any reversal signals in momentum indicators before considering fresh positions. Those currently holding the stock may wish to evaluate alternative opportunities within the Media & Entertainment sector or broader market, especially given the availability of peer comparison tools that identify superior options.

Technical indicators to watch going forward include:

• MACD crossover signals on weekly and monthly charts
• RSI movement into oversold or overbought zones
• Price action relative to daily and weekly moving averages
• Volume confirmation through OBV trends
• Breakouts or breakdowns from Bollinger Bands

These will provide clearer guidance on whether the current bearish momentum will persist or if a technical rebound is imminent.

Conclusion

Saregama India Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes reflect a shift towards a more bearish outlook, despite pockets of mild bullishness on shorter timeframes. The stock’s current price momentum and technical indicators counsel caution for investors, especially in the context of a downgraded Mojo Grade and underperformance over the past year. Long-term investors may find value in the stock’s historical gains, but near-term traders should remain vigilant for further signs of trend confirmation or reversal.

Unlock special upgrade rates for a limited period. Start Saving Now →