Shri Venkatesh Refineries Ltd Sees Mixed Technical Signals Amid Mild Momentum Shift

Price Movement and Market Context

On 2 Jan 2026, Shri Venkatesh Refineries closed at ₹286.05, down 1.79% from the previous close of ₹291.25. The stock traded within a narrow intraday range, hitting a high of ₹292.00 and a low of ₹286.05. This price action comes against a backdrop of a 52-week high of ₹333.80 and a low of ₹181.00, indicating the stock is currently trading closer to its upper range but has retraced from recent peaks.

Comparatively, the stock’s one-week return of -3.03% underperformed the Sensex’s modest decline of -0.26%. Over the one-month horizon, Shri Venkatesh’s return of -0.5% slightly outpaced the Sensex’s -0.53%. Year-to-date, the stock is down 1.79%, while the Sensex is nearly flat at -0.04%. However, the longer-term performance remains impressive, with a one-year return of 26.85% significantly exceeding the Sensex’s 8.51%, and a three-year return of 198.75% dwarfing the benchmark’s 40.02%.

Technical Trend Shift: From Bullish to Mildly Bullish

The technical trend for Shri Venkatesh Refineries has shifted from a clear bullish stance to a mildly bullish one, signalling a potential deceleration in upward momentum. This nuanced change suggests that while the stock retains some positive momentum, the strength of the trend has softened, warranting closer scrutiny by traders and investors.

Daily moving averages remain bullish, indicating that the short-term price trajectory is still upward. However, weekly and monthly indicators present a more mixed picture, reflecting the stock’s recent volatility and the possibility of consolidation or correction phases ahead.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reveals a divergence in momentum across timeframes. On the weekly chart, the MACD is mildly bearish, signalling a weakening of upward momentum and potential for short-term price pullbacks. Conversely, the monthly MACD remains bullish, suggesting that the longer-term trend is still intact and positive.

This divergence highlights the importance of timeframe perspective when analysing Shri Venkatesh’s price action. Short-term traders may interpret the weekly MACD bearishness as a cue to exercise caution or consider profit-taking, while long-term investors might view the monthly bullish MACD as a sign to hold their positions.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Signals

The RSI readings further complicate the technical outlook. The weekly RSI currently shows no clear signal, hovering in a neutral zone that neither indicates overbought nor oversold conditions. This suggests a period of indecision or consolidation in the near term.

In contrast, the monthly RSI is bearish, implying that the stock may be losing relative strength over the longer term. This bearish monthly RSI could be a warning sign for investors to monitor for potential weakening in price momentum if the trend continues.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands provide insight into volatility and price range dynamics. On a weekly basis, the bands are bullish, indicating that the stock price is trending towards the upper band and suggesting upward momentum with moderate volatility. The monthly Bollinger Bands are mildly bullish, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook over the medium term.

This combination suggests that while volatility remains contained, there is still room for upward price movement, albeit at a tempered pace.

Other Technical Indicators: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV

The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator is mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, reinforcing the notion of weakening momentum. The Dow Theory analysis shows no clear trend on either timeframe, indicating a lack of definitive directional conviction in the market.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) data is unavailable for this analysis, limiting insights into volume-driven price movements. However, the mixed signals from other indicators suggest that volume trends may not be strongly supporting either bulls or bears at present.

Mojo Score and Grade Update

MarketsMOJO has downgraded Shri Venkatesh Refineries Ltd’s Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell as of 1 Jan 2026, reflecting the recent technical deterioration and cautious outlook. The current Mojo Score stands at 47.0, indicating below-average technical strength. The Market Cap Grade is 4, suggesting a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers in the edible oil sector.

This downgrade aligns with the mixed technical signals and recent price underperformance, signalling investors to reassess their exposure to the stock.

Long-Term Performance and Sector Context

Despite recent technical challenges, Shri Venkatesh Refineries has delivered exceptional long-term returns. Its three-year return of 198.75% vastly outperforms the Sensex’s 40.02%, underscoring the company’s strong growth trajectory within the edible oil sector. This sector has benefited from rising domestic consumption and favourable commodity price trends over recent years.

However, the edible oil industry remains sensitive to global oilseed prices, import duties, and regulatory changes, which can introduce volatility. Investors should weigh these macro factors alongside technical signals when considering their positions.

Investor Takeaway

Shri Venkatesh Refineries Ltd currently presents a complex technical picture. The shift from bullish to mildly bullish trend, combined with mixed MACD and RSI signals, suggests that short-term momentum is weakening while longer-term prospects remain cautiously positive. The downgrade to a Sell Mojo Grade reinforces the need for prudence.

Investors with a short-term horizon may consider reducing exposure or waiting for clearer technical confirmation before initiating new positions. Long-term investors might maintain holdings but should monitor momentum indicators closely for signs of further deterioration.

Overall, Shri Venkatesh Refineries remains a stock with strong historical performance but faces near-term technical headwinds that require careful analysis and risk management.

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