Technical Momentum Shifts to Bullish
After a period of mild bullishness, Shri Venkatesh Refineries has seen its technical trend upgrade to a clear bullish stance. This shift is underpinned by several key indicators. The daily moving averages have turned bullish, signalling that short-term price momentum is gaining strength. The stock’s current price of ₹292.50 is comfortably above its previous close of ₹283.35, and it is trading well above its 52-week low of ₹181.00, though still below the 52-week high of ₹333.80.
On the weekly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains mildly bearish, suggesting some caution in the short term. However, the monthly MACD has turned bullish, indicating that the longer-term momentum is positive. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings suggests that while short-term volatility may persist, the overall trend is strengthening.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for further upward movement without immediate risk of a sharp correction.
Bollinger Bands and KST Indicators Confirm Strength
Bollinger Bands have turned bullish on both weekly and monthly charts, signalling increased volatility with an upward bias. This technical pattern often precedes sustained price rallies as the stock price breaks above the upper band, reflecting strong buying interest.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator presents a mixed picture: mildly bearish on the weekly timeframe but bullish on the monthly. This again highlights the contrast between short-term caution and longer-term optimism. Investors should monitor weekly KST readings closely for any signs of reversal or confirmation of the bullish trend.
Volume and Dow Theory Signals
While On-Balance Volume (OBV) data is not explicitly available for this stock, the price action combined with volume trends in the edible oil sector suggests that accumulation may be underway. Dow Theory indicators currently show no definitive trend on either weekly or monthly charts, indicating that the market is still digesting recent price movements and awaiting clearer directional cues.
Comparative Performance Against Sensex
Shri Venkatesh Refineries has outperformed the broader market significantly over multiple time horizons. Year-to-date, the stock has delivered a robust 27.73% return compared to the Sensex’s 8.36%. Over the past year, the stock’s 30% gain dwarfs the Sensex’s 8.21% rise. Even more impressively, the three-year return stands at 205.48%, vastly exceeding the Sensex’s 39.17% over the same period. This outperformance underscores the company’s strong fundamentals and favourable positioning within the edible oil sector.
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Mojo Score and Grade Upgrade Reflect Improving Outlook
MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system has upgraded Shri Venkatesh Refineries’ Mojo Grade from Sell to Hold as of 24 June 2025, with a current Mojo Score of 58.0. This reflects a meaningful improvement in the company’s technical and fundamental outlook. The Market Cap Grade remains at 4, indicating a mid-cap status with moderate liquidity and market presence.
The upgrade signals that while the stock is not yet a strong buy, it has moved out of the sell territory and is now considered a hold, suggesting investors should watch for further confirmation before increasing exposure. The technical upgrades, combined with solid price returns, support this more positive stance.
Sector and Industry Context
Operating within the edible oil industry, Shri Venkatesh Refineries benefits from steady demand fundamentals and favourable commodity price trends. The sector has seen increased volatility due to global supply chain disruptions and fluctuating raw material costs, but the company’s recent price momentum suggests it is navigating these challenges effectively.
Compared to peers, Shri Venkatesh’s technical indicators are showing more consistent bullish signals, particularly on monthly charts, which may attract investors seeking exposure to the edible oil sector with a growth tilt.
Short-Term Risks and Considerations
Despite the positive technical signals, some caution is warranted. The weekly MACD and KST indicators remain mildly bearish, and the absence of a clear Dow Theory trend suggests that short-term price fluctuations could persist. Investors should monitor daily moving averages closely, as a sustained break below these levels could signal a reversal.
Additionally, the stock’s current price remains about 12.5% below its 52-week high, indicating some room for upside but also the potential for resistance near recent highs. The RSI’s neutral stance means the stock is not yet overextended, but momentum could slow if broader market conditions deteriorate.
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Outlook and Investor Takeaways
Shri Venkatesh Refineries Ltd’s recent technical upgrades and strong price performance relative to the Sensex highlight its potential as a resilient mid-cap stock within the edible oil sector. The bullish signals from moving averages and monthly MACD, combined with a neutral RSI and supportive Bollinger Bands, suggest that the stock could continue its upward trajectory in the medium term.
Investors should weigh the mildly bearish weekly indicators and lack of a clear Dow Theory trend as signs to maintain a cautious stance in the short term. However, the upgrade in Mojo Grade to Hold and the company’s impressive multi-year returns provide a compelling case for inclusion in a diversified portfolio focused on growth-oriented mid-caps.
Monitoring volume trends and technical signals in the coming weeks will be crucial to confirm the sustainability of this bullish momentum. Should the weekly MACD and KST indicators improve, it could pave the way for a further upgrade in the stock’s rating and attract increased institutional interest.
Summary of Key Technical Metrics:
- Current Price: ₹292.50 (up 3.23% today)
- 52-Week Range: ₹181.00 - ₹333.80
- Mojo Score: 58.0 (Hold, upgraded from Sell on 24 Jun 2025)
- Moving Averages (Daily): Bullish
- MACD: Weekly - Mildly Bearish; Monthly - Bullish
- RSI: Weekly & Monthly - No Signal (Neutral)
- Bollinger Bands: Weekly & Monthly - Bullish
- KST: Weekly - Mildly Bearish; Monthly - Bullish
- Dow Theory: Weekly & Monthly - No Trend
- Returns: 1Y +30.0% vs Sensex +8.21%; 3Y +205.48% vs Sensex +39.17%
Overall, Shri Venkatesh Refineries Ltd is demonstrating a positive technical turnaround that merits attention from investors seeking exposure to the edible oil sector with a growth bias. The combination of strong price momentum, improving technical indicators, and a recent Mojo Grade upgrade provides a balanced outlook with potential for further gains.
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