SJVN Ltd. Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Indicator Signals

Price Momentum and Recent Performance

SJVN Ltd. closed at ₹77.29 on 12 Feb 2026, up from the previous close of ₹72.80, marking a robust intraday gain of 6.17%. The stock traded within a range of ₹71.92 to ₹78.48 during the session, reflecting heightened volatility and renewed buying interest. However, the current price remains significantly below its 52-week high of ₹107.50, indicating room for recovery but also caution given the recent downtrend.

Over the short term, SJVN has outperformed the Sensex benchmark, delivering a 4.47% return over the past week compared to Sensex’s modest 0.50%. Year-to-date, the stock has gained 3.36%, while the Sensex has declined by 1.16%. Despite these encouraging short-term returns, the one-year performance remains weak, with SJVN down 15.11% against the Sensex’s 10.41% gain, underscoring the stock’s recent struggles amid sectoral and macroeconomic headwinds.

Technical Trend Shift: From Bearish to Mildly Bearish

The technical trend for SJVN Ltd. has shifted from a clearly bearish outlook to a mildly bearish stance. This subtle improvement suggests that while the stock is not yet in a confirmed uptrend, the downward pressure is easing. The daily moving averages remain mildly bearish, indicating that short-term momentum is still cautious but stabilising.

On the weekly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned mildly bullish, signalling a potential shift in momentum. However, the monthly MACD remains bearish, reflecting longer-term caution. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights the stock’s transitional phase, where short-term optimism is yet to translate into sustained long-term strength.

RSI and Bollinger Bands: Neutral to Mildly Bearish Signals

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for directional movement based on upcoming market catalysts.

Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts indicate a mildly bearish trend, with the price closer to the lower band. This positioning often signals increased volatility and potential downside risk, but it can also precede a rebound if buying interest intensifies.

Other Momentum Indicators: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV

The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator presents a mixed picture: weekly readings are mildly bullish, suggesting some short-term upward momentum, while monthly readings remain bearish, reinforcing the longer-term caution. This aligns with the MACD’s mixed signals and indicates that investors should watch for confirmation before committing to a bullish stance.

Dow Theory analysis shows a mildly bearish trend on both weekly and monthly charts, implying that the broader market sentiment for SJVN remains cautious. Meanwhile, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is mildly bearish on the weekly timeframe and shows no clear trend monthly, suggesting that volume-based momentum is not strongly supporting a rally at present.

Valuation and Market Capitalisation Context

SJVN’s market capitalisation grade stands at 2, reflecting a relatively modest size within the power sector. The company’s Mojo Score is 35.0, with a current Mojo Grade of Sell, upgraded from a previous Strong Sell on 6 Nov 2024. This upgrade indicates some improvement in technical and fundamental factors but still advises caution for investors.

Comparing SJVN’s returns over longer periods reveals a mixed performance. While the stock has delivered impressive gains over three and five years—138.92% and 192.21% respectively, outperforming the Sensex’s 38.81% and 63.46%—the 10-year return of 179.03% trails the Sensex’s 267.00%. This suggests that while SJVN has been a strong performer in the medium term, it has lagged broader market growth over the decade.

Implications for Investors

The current technical landscape for SJVN Ltd. suggests a cautious but potentially improving outlook. The shift from bearish to mildly bearish trends, combined with mixed signals from key indicators, implies that the stock may be in the early stages of a recovery phase. However, the lack of strong bullish confirmation on monthly charts and volume indicators advises prudence.

Investors should monitor the stock’s ability to sustain gains above the ₹77-78 level and watch for a decisive breakout above its 52-week high of ₹107.50 to confirm a more robust uptrend. Additionally, the interplay between short-term bullish signals and longer-term bearish trends warrants close attention to macroeconomic developments and sectoral dynamics in the power industry.

Sectoral and Market Context

Within the power sector, SJVN Ltd. faces both opportunities and challenges. The sector’s transition towards renewable energy and government initiatives to boost infrastructure investment could provide tailwinds. However, regulatory uncertainties and fluctuating demand patterns remain risks that could impact the stock’s trajectory.

Comparatively, SJVN’s recent outperformance relative to the Sensex in the short term is encouraging, but the stock’s underperformance over the past year highlights the need for investors to balance optimism with caution. Technical indicators suggest that while momentum is building, confirmation through sustained volume and trend strength is essential before a clear bullish case can be made.

Conclusion

SJVN Ltd. is currently navigating a transitional phase in its technical momentum, with a shift from bearish to mildly bearish trends accompanied by mixed signals from key technical indicators. The stock’s recent price gains and weekly momentum oscillators hint at potential recovery, but longer-term monthly indicators and volume trends counsel prudence.

Investors should closely monitor the evolving technical landscape, particularly the MACD and moving averages, alongside broader sectoral developments. While the stock’s medium-term performance remains strong relative to the Sensex, the near-term outlook requires careful analysis to capitalise on emerging opportunities while managing downside risks.

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