Spel Semiconductor Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Downgrade

Technical Momentum Shifts to Bearish

The stock, currently trading at ₹154.30, has seen a decline of 2.80% from its previous close of ₹158.75. This drop accompanies a broader technical trend change from mildly bearish to outright bearish, reflecting increased selling pressure. The 52-week high stands at ₹262.80, while the 52-week low is ₹100.05, indicating significant volatility over the past year.

Examining the Moving Averages on a daily basis reveals a mildly bearish stance, with the stock price hovering below key averages, signalling potential resistance to upward momentum. The Bollinger Bands further reinforce this view, showing a mildly bearish pattern on the weekly chart and a more pronounced bearish signal on the monthly timeframe. This suggests that volatility is increasing on the downside, with the price testing lower support levels.

MACD and KST Indicators Confirm Downtrend

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a bearish outlook on the weekly chart, while the monthly MACD remains mildly bearish. This divergence indicates that short-term momentum is weakening more rapidly than the longer-term trend, which could foreshadow further downside pressure if the weekly trend persists.

Similarly, the Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator aligns with this bearish narrative, showing a bearish signal on the weekly chart and a mildly bearish stance monthly. These momentum oscillators are critical in confirming the shift in trend and suggest that the stock may continue to face downward pressure in the near term.

RSI and Dow Theory Provide Mixed Signals

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of directional momentum in RSI implies that the stock is neither oversold nor overbought, leaving room for further movement in either direction depending on market catalysts.

Dow Theory analysis reveals no definitive trend on the weekly chart but indicates a mildly bearish trend on the monthly scale. This mixed reading suggests that while short-term price action is uncertain, the broader monthly trend is tilting towards caution.

On-Balance Volume and Market Sentiment

On-Balance Volume (OBV) data is currently unavailable for both weekly and monthly periods, limiting insights into volume-driven momentum. However, the overall technical picture, combined with the stock’s recent price decline, points to a cautious market sentiment among investors.

Comparative Performance and Market Context

Despite the recent technical weakness, Spel Semiconductor Ltd has delivered impressive returns over longer horizons. Year-to-date, the stock has gained 12.79%, outperforming the Sensex which declined by 2.08% over the same period. Over one year, the stock surged 36.01%, significantly ahead of the Sensex’s 9.81% rise.

Longer-term returns are even more striking, with a three-year gain of 271.81% compared to the Sensex’s 36.80%, a five-year return of 825.61% versus 61.40%, and a ten-year return of 998.22% against the Sensex’s 256.90%. These figures highlight the stock’s strong growth trajectory despite short-term technical setbacks.

Market Capitalisation and Mojo Score Insights

Spel Semiconductor Ltd holds a Market Cap Grade of 4, indicating a mid-sized market capitalisation within its sector. The company’s Mojo Score has recently deteriorated to 12.0, with a downgrade in Mojo Grade from Sell to Strong Sell as of 11 Dec 2025. This downgrade reflects the worsening technical and fundamental outlook as assessed by MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system.

The downgrade to Strong Sell signals heightened risk and suggests investors should exercise caution, particularly given the bearish technical indicators and recent price declines.

Price Volatility and Intraday Range

On 18 Feb 2026, the stock traded within a range of ₹152.25 to ₹160.00, closing near the lower end of this band. This intraday volatility underscores the current uncertainty and selling pressure. The proximity to the 52-week low of ₹100.05 also raises questions about potential support levels and the risk of further downside.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

While Spel Semiconductor Ltd’s long-term performance remains impressive, the current technical indicators caution investors about near-term risks. The bearish signals from MACD, KST, and Bollinger Bands, combined with a downgrade to Strong Sell, suggest that momentum is shifting unfavourably.

Investors should closely monitor key support levels around ₹150 and the 52-week low of ₹100.05. A sustained break below these could trigger further declines. Conversely, a reversal in momentum indicators or a recovery above daily moving averages could signal a potential turnaround.

Given the mixed signals from RSI and Dow Theory, alongside the absence of volume confirmation from OBV, the stock’s trajectory remains uncertain. Prudent investors may consider waiting for clearer technical confirmation before initiating new positions.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the Other Electrical Equipment sector, Spel Semiconductor Ltd faces sector-specific challenges including supply chain disruptions and fluctuating demand for semiconductor components. These factors may exacerbate the stock’s technical weakness in the short term.

Comparatively, the sector has shown resilience, but Spel Semiconductor’s technical deterioration highlights the importance of stock-specific analysis within broader market trends.

Conclusion

In summary, Spel Semiconductor Ltd is currently navigating a bearish technical phase marked by weakening momentum and a downgrade in its Mojo Grade to Strong Sell. While its long-term returns remain robust, the near-term outlook is clouded by negative signals from key technical indicators. Investors should exercise caution, consider alternative opportunities, and monitor technical developments closely.

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