Technical Trend Overview
Thomas Cook (India) Ltd’s technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling a more pronounced negative momentum. The daily moving averages have turned bearish, indicating that the stock’s short-term price action is under pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a bearish stance on the weekly chart and a mildly bearish outlook on the monthly timeframe, reinforcing the downtrend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral with no clear signal on both weekly and monthly charts, suggesting the stock is neither oversold nor overbought at present.
The Bollinger Bands further corroborate the bearish sentiment, showing a mildly bearish pattern on the weekly scale and a more definitive bearish signal monthly. This suggests that price volatility is skewed towards the downside, with the stock price gravitating towards the lower band. The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligns with this view, registering bearish momentum weekly and mildly bearish monthly, which points to weakening price strength over both short and medium terms.
Interestingly, the Dow Theory presents a mixed picture: mildly bullish on the weekly timeframe but mildly bearish monthly. This divergence indicates some short-term resilience but an overarching longer-term weakness. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows mild bullishness weekly but no clear trend monthly, implying that volume flows are not decisively supporting the price movement, which could limit any sustained rallies.
Price Action and Market Context
Thomas Cook’s current market price stands at ₹145.65, down 2.25% from the previous close of ₹149.00. The stock traded within a range of ₹144.00 to ₹147.70 today, reflecting intraday volatility but an overall downward bias. The 52-week high of ₹199.75 and low of ₹118.10 highlight a wide trading band, with the current price closer to the lower end, underscoring the recent weakness.
Comparing the stock’s returns against the Sensex reveals a challenging performance. Over the past week, Thomas Cook outperformed the Sensex with a 1.92% gain versus the benchmark’s 0.85%. However, this short-term strength is overshadowed by longer-term underperformance. The stock has declined 0.92% over the past month while the Sensex gained 0.73%, and year-to-date returns show a 2.12% loss against a 0.64% Sensex gain. Over one year, the stock has plummeted 25.69%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s 7.28% rise.
Despite this, Thomas Cook’s longer-term returns remain impressive, with a 3-year gain of 101.04% compared to the Sensex’s 40.21%, and a 5-year return of 205.03% versus the Sensex’s 79.16%. However, the 10-year return is negative at -28.93%, while the Sensex has surged 227.83%, indicating volatility and cyclical challenges in the company’s performance over the decade.
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Mojo Score and Rating Implications
Thomas Cook’s current Mojo Score stands at 37.0, which is categorised as a Sell rating. This represents a downgrade from the previous Hold rating as of 03 Nov 2025, reflecting a deterioration in the company’s overall quality and technical outlook. The Market Cap Grade is a low 3, indicating limited market capitalisation strength relative to peers. This downgrade is consistent with the bearish technical signals and recent price weakness.
The downgrade to Sell suggests that investors should exercise caution, as the stock’s momentum indicators and fundamental grading point to potential further downside. The combination of bearish MACD, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands, alongside a weak market cap grade, signals that the stock may face continued selling pressure in the near term.
Sector and Industry Context
Operating within the Tour and Travel Related Services sector, Thomas Cook faces sector-specific headwinds including fluctuating travel demand, geopolitical uncertainties, and evolving consumer preferences. The sector’s recovery post-pandemic has been uneven, and companies like Thomas Cook must navigate these challenges while managing operational costs and competitive pressures.
Given the sector’s sensitivity to external shocks, the bearish technical signals may also reflect broader market concerns about travel industry volatility. Investors should weigh these sector dynamics alongside the company’s individual technical and fundamental profile when making investment decisions.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
In summary, Thomas Cook (India) Ltd’s technical indicators collectively point to a bearish momentum shift, with the stock’s price action and volume trends supporting a cautious stance. The downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO underscores the need for investors to reassess their exposure, especially given the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over the medium term.
While the stock has demonstrated strong long-term returns over three and five years, recent technical deterioration and sector challenges suggest that near-term risks remain elevated. Investors should monitor key technical levels, including the 52-week low of ₹118.10, as a potential support zone, while also watching for any reversal signals in MACD or RSI that could indicate a change in momentum.
Given the mixed signals from Dow Theory and OBV, short-term rallies may occur, but the prevailing trend remains bearish until confirmed otherwise by improved technical readings and fundamental catalysts. Prudent investors may consider waiting for clearer signs of trend reversal or exploring alternative opportunities within the travel sector or broader market.
Conclusion
Thomas Cook (India) Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes highlight a shift towards bearish momentum, with multiple indicators signalling caution. The downgrade to a Sell rating and a Mojo Score of 37.0 reflect this negative outlook. While the company’s long-term performance has been commendable, current market dynamics and technical signals suggest investors should approach with prudence and consider portfolio diversification or switching to higher-quality stocks.
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