Technical Trend Shift and Moving Averages
The technical trend for TCI has transitioned from mildly bearish to outright bearish, a development that warrants close attention from investors and analysts alike. The daily moving averages reinforce this bearish outlook, with the stock price trading below key averages, indicating downward pressure in the short term. This shift suggests that the momentum has weakened, and the stock may face resistance in reclaiming previous highs without a significant catalyst.
On the daily chart, the stock’s inability to sustain levels above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages signals a lack of bullish conviction. This technical weakness is compounded by the fact that the stock’s recent high of ₹1,046.30 was unable to hold, closing lower at ₹1,027.00. Such price action often reflects profit-taking or cautious positioning by market participants.
MACD and Momentum Oscillators
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains bearish, confirming the prevailing downward momentum. The monthly MACD, however, is mildly bearish, suggesting that while the longer-term trend is still negative, the intensity of the bearishness is less severe. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings indicates that the stock may be in a consolidation phase within a broader downtrend.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers no clear signal on either the weekly or monthly charts, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of directional RSI momentum implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, which could mean that the current price levels are being accepted by the market, but without strong conviction either way.
Bollinger Bands and Volatility Assessment
Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly timeframes are signalling bearish conditions. The stock price is closer to the lower band, indicating increased volatility and a potential for further downside if the trend continues. The bands’ widening suggests that price swings may become more pronounced, which could lead to heightened risk for short-term traders.
Other Technical Indicators: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligns with the bearish narrative on the weekly chart and is mildly bearish on the monthly chart, reinforcing the view of weakening momentum. Dow Theory analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly timeframe but indicates a mildly bearish stance monthly, suggesting that the stock is struggling to establish a definitive directional trend.
Interestingly, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator presents a mildly bullish signal on the monthly chart, hinting at some accumulation despite the price weakness. This divergence between volume and price could imply that institutional investors are selectively buying, potentially anticipating a future rebound or value opportunity.
Price Performance Relative to Sensex
Examining TCI’s returns relative to the benchmark Sensex reveals a mixed performance. Over the past week, the stock has underperformed, declining by 2.06% compared to the Sensex’s 1.47% drop. However, over the last month, TCI outperformed with a 3.36% gain against the Sensex’s 0.84%. Year-to-date, the stock has declined 4.61%, slightly worse than the Sensex’s 3.51% fall.
Longer-term returns paint a more favourable picture for TCI. Over one year, the stock has delivered a 5.88% return, though this lags the Sensex’s 10.44%. Over three years, TCI has significantly outperformed with a 58.18% gain versus the Sensex’s 38.28%. The five-year and ten-year returns are particularly impressive, with TCI delivering 314.61% and 340.49% respectively, far exceeding the Sensex’s 61.92% and 256.13% gains. This long-term outperformance underscores the company’s resilience and growth potential despite recent technical setbacks.
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Mojo Score and Rating Upgrade
MarketsMOJO has recently upgraded Transport Corporation of India Ltd’s rating from Sell to Hold as of 23 February 2026, reflecting a cautious but more optimistic stance. The current Mojo Score stands at 50.0, indicating a neutral position that neither strongly favours buying nor selling. The Market Cap Grade is 3, suggesting a mid-tier valuation relative to peers in the transport services sector.
This upgrade is consistent with the mixed technical signals observed. While the short-term momentum remains bearish, the absence of strong oversold conditions and the mild bullish volume signals provide some support for a stabilisation or potential recovery in the medium term.
Industry and Sector Context
Operating within the transport services industry, TCI faces sectoral headwinds including fluctuating fuel prices, regulatory changes, and evolving logistics demands. The sector itself has shown resilience but remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth and trade volumes. Against this backdrop, TCI’s technical weakness may partly reflect broader sectoral pressures rather than company-specific issues alone.
Investment Implications and Outlook
For investors, the current technical landscape suggests a cautious approach. The bearish momentum and moving average positioning imply that short-term downside risks remain. However, the neutral RSI and mildly bullish OBV on monthly charts indicate that the stock is not in a strong downtrend and may be consolidating before a potential move.
Long-term investors may find comfort in TCI’s robust multi-year returns and recent rating upgrade, which together suggest that the company retains fundamental strength despite technical challenges. Traders should monitor key support levels near the 52-week low of ₹875.20 and resistance around the recent high of ₹1,299.05 to gauge potential breakout or breakdown points.
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Summary
Transport Corporation of India Ltd is currently navigating a challenging technical environment marked by bearish momentum and mixed indicator signals. While short-term technicals point to caution, the stock’s long-term performance and recent rating upgrade provide a balanced perspective for investors. Monitoring key technical levels and volume trends will be crucial in assessing the stock’s next directional move within the transport services sector.
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