TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Mixed Technical Signals

Technical Trend Shift and Moving Averages

The recent change in TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd’s technical trend from mildly bearish to bearish reflects a deterioration in short-term price momentum. The daily moving averages reinforce this bearish outlook, with the stock trading below key averages, signalling downward pressure. This suggests that the stock is struggling to maintain upward momentum in the near term, despite minor intraday fluctuations.

Today's trading range saw a high of ₹115.15 and a low of ₹112.70, with the stock closing marginally higher than the previous close of ₹114.25. However, the 52-week high of ₹180.90 remains significantly distant, underscoring the stock’s underperformance over the past year.

MACD and RSI: Divergent Signals

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a bearish signal on the weekly chart, indicating that downward momentum is prevailing in the medium term. Conversely, the monthly MACD reading is neutral, suggesting that longer-term momentum has yet to decisively turn negative. This divergence implies that while short-term traders may be cautious, longer-term investors might find some respite.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings further complicate the picture. The weekly RSI shows no clear signal, hovering in a neutral zone that neither indicates overbought nor oversold conditions. In contrast, the monthly RSI is bullish, hinting at potential strength building over a longer horizon. This mixed RSI scenario suggests that while short-term momentum is subdued, the stock may be poised for a recovery if broader market conditions improve.

Bollinger Bands and KST Analysis

Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly timeframes are mildly bearish, reflecting increased volatility and a tendency for the stock price to remain near the lower band. This technical setup often signals caution, as it can precede further downside or a consolidation phase. The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligns with this view, showing bearish momentum on the weekly chart, though the monthly KST remains inconclusive.

Volume and Dow Theory Perspectives

On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis reveals a mildly bullish trend on the weekly scale, indicating that volume flow is somewhat supportive of price gains in the short term. However, the monthly OBV is mildly bearish, suggesting that longer-term volume trends do not favour sustained price appreciation. Dow Theory assessments add another layer of complexity: the weekly outlook is mildly bullish, while the monthly perspective remains bearish. This split underscores the importance of timeframe in interpreting technical signals for TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd.

Comparative Returns and Market Context

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd’s recent returns show a mixed performance relative to the broader Sensex index. Over the past week, the stock has outperformed with a 6.08% gain compared to Sensex’s 0.85%. Similarly, the one-month return of 5.35% surpasses the Sensex’s 0.73%, and year-to-date gains of 2.37% also exceed the benchmark’s 0.64%. These short-term outperformance figures suggest some resilience despite the bearish technical signals.

However, the longer-term picture is less favourable. The stock has declined by 35.82% over the past year, while the Sensex has appreciated by 7.28%. This stark contrast highlights the challenges TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd faces in regaining investor confidence and market share within the transport services sector.

Data for three, five, and ten-year returns are not available for the stock, but the Sensex’s robust gains of 40.21%, 79.16%, and 227.83% respectively over these periods underscore the broader market’s strength relative to this stock’s performance.

Mojo Score and Ratings Update

MarketsMOJO assigns TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd a Mojo Score of 34.0, reflecting a Sell rating. This represents an upgrade from a previous Strong Sell grade as of 30 Dec 2025, signalling a slight improvement in outlook but still cautioning investors. The Market Cap Grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers in the transport services sector.

The downgrade in technical trend to bearish aligns with the current Mojo Grade, reinforcing the need for investors to exercise prudence. The mixed technical signals, combined with the stock’s underwhelming long-term returns, suggest that while short-term opportunities may exist, the overall risk profile remains elevated.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

Investors analysing TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd should weigh the bearish technical momentum against the stock’s recent short-term outperformance and mixed monthly indicators. The prevailing bearish signals on daily and weekly charts, particularly the MACD and moving averages, caution against aggressive buying at current levels. Meanwhile, the bullish monthly RSI and mildly bullish weekly OBV and Dow Theory signals suggest that a longer-term recovery is not out of the question, provided the company can improve operational performance and market sentiment.

Given the stock’s significant underperformance over the past year relative to the Sensex, a cautious approach is advisable. Monitoring key technical levels, such as support near the 52-week low of ₹100.25 and resistance around the recent highs near ₹115, will be critical for timing entries and exits.

Overall, TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd remains a stock with considerable volatility and mixed signals. Investors with a higher risk tolerance and a long-term horizon may find opportunities if the company’s fundamentals improve, but those seeking stability might consider alternative investments within the transport services sector or broader market.

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