Adani Ports Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Amid Mixed Market Signals

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 29 Dec 2025, Adani Ports recorded an open interest (OI) of 92,587 contracts, up from 81,857 the previous day, marking an increase of 10,730 contracts or 13.11%. This rise in OI is significant as it indicates fresh positions being taken rather than existing ones being squared off. The volume for the day stood at 65,516 contracts, reflecting active trading interest in the stock’s futures and options.

The futures value traded was ₹1,21,969.52 lakhs, while the options segment saw an enormous notional value of approximately ₹3,41,101.74 crores, culminating in a total derivatives turnover of ₹1,24,100.81 lakhs. Such substantial activity underscores the stock’s prominence in the derivatives market and the keen attention it commands from traders and institutional participants alike.

Price Performance and Market Context

Despite the surge in derivatives activity, Adani Ports underperformed its sector on the day, declining by 1.50%, while the transport infrastructure sector gained 4.96%. The stock has been on a downward trajectory for two consecutive sessions, losing 1.93% over this period. It closed at an underlying value of ₹1,465, trading below its short-term moving averages (5-day, 20-day, and 50-day) but remaining above the longer-term 100-day and 200-day averages. This mixed technical picture suggests some near-term weakness amid longer-term support.

Investor participation appears to be waning, with delivery volumes falling by 16.46% to 5.35 lakh shares on 26 Dec compared to the five-day average. Liquidity remains adequate, supporting trade sizes up to ₹3.67 crore based on 2% of the five-day average traded value, ensuring that the stock remains accessible for institutional and retail investors.

Market Positioning and Directional Bets

The increase in open interest alongside a decline in price suggests that new short positions may be accumulating, or alternatively, that longs are adding cautiously amid uncertainty. The sizeable derivatives turnover, especially in options, points to complex hedging strategies or directional bets being placed by sophisticated market participants.

Adani Ports’ Mojo Score currently stands at 64.0, with a Mojo Grade of Hold, upgraded from Sell on 8 Sep 2025. This reflects a cautious but improving outlook, supported by the company’s large-cap status with a market capitalisation of ₹3,39,154 crore. The market cap grade of 1 indicates the stock’s significant weight and influence within the transport infrastructure sector.

Given the stock’s recent underperformance relative to its sector and the Sensex, which declined marginally by 0.32% on the same day, investors appear to be recalibrating their positions. The divergence between the stock’s price action and sector gains may be signalling sector rotation or profit-taking in Adani Ports specifically.

Technical and Fundamental Considerations

Technically, the stock’s position above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages provides a degree of long-term support, but the failure to hold above shorter-term averages suggests near-term resistance. The falling delivery volumes indicate reduced conviction among investors, which could translate into increased volatility in the coming sessions.

Fundamentally, Adani Ports remains a key player in India’s transport infrastructure landscape, benefiting from robust cargo volumes and strategic port locations. However, the current market environment, characterised by global economic uncertainties and sector-specific challenges, may be tempering investor enthusiasm.

Implications for Investors

For investors, the surge in open interest signals increased market attention and potential volatility ahead. The mixed signals from price action and derivatives activity suggest a cautious stance may be prudent. Those with a bullish outlook might consider monitoring for a breakout above short-term moving averages, while bears may view the current weakness as an opportunity to add to short positions or hedge existing exposure.

Given the stock’s large-cap status and strategic importance, it remains a key watchlist candidate for portfolio allocation within the transport infrastructure sector. However, the Hold rating and Mojo Score of 64.0 indicate that investors should balance optimism with risk management, especially in the context of broader market fluctuations.

Outlook and Conclusion

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd’s recent open interest surge in derivatives highlights a dynamic market environment with active positioning and divergent views on the stock’s near-term trajectory. While the company’s fundamentals and long-term technical support remain intact, short-term price pressures and declining investor participation warrant careful analysis.

Market participants should closely track volume and open interest trends alongside price movements to gauge the evolving sentiment. The stock’s performance relative to its sector and broader indices will also be critical in assessing whether the current weakness is a temporary correction or the start of a more sustained downtrend.

In summary, Adani Ports presents a complex but compelling case for investors seeking exposure to India’s transport infrastructure, with derivatives market activity providing valuable clues to underlying market psychology and potential directional bets.

Only Rs. 9,999 - Get MojoOne + Stock of the Week for 1 Year (MRP = Rs. 34,999) Start Today