Adani Ports Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Amid Mixed Market Signals

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 29 Dec 2025, Adani Ports recorded an open interest (OI) of 93,348 contracts, up from 81,857 the previous day, marking an increase of 11,491 contracts or 14.04%. This rise in OI is accompanied by a futures volume of 72,950 contracts, reflecting robust trading activity. The futures value stood at ₹1,41,457.57 lakhs, while the options segment exhibited an enormous notional value of approximately ₹37,409.73 crores, underscoring significant derivatives market interest.

Despite this surge in derivatives activity, the underlying stock price declined by 1.63% on the day, underperforming the transport infrastructure sector, which gained 4.73%. Over the past two sessions, the stock has fallen by 2.14%, indicating some selling pressure amid the broader sector strength.

Market Positioning and Sentiment

The increase in open interest alongside a falling stock price suggests that market participants may be building fresh positions, possibly directional bets on further downside or hedging existing exposures. The stock’s price remains above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, signalling a longer-term uptrend, but it is trading below its 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day averages, indicating short-term weakness.

Investor participation appears to be waning, with delivery volumes on 26 Dec falling by 16.46% compared to the five-day average, registering at 5.35 lakh shares. This decline in delivery volume suggests reduced conviction among long-term holders, potentially increasing volatility in the near term.

Liquidity and Trade Size Considerations

Liquidity remains adequate for sizeable trades, with the stock’s average traded value supporting a trade size of approximately ₹3.67 crore based on 2% of the five-day average traded value. This level of liquidity is favourable for institutional investors and traders looking to execute large orders without significant market impact.

Mojo Score Upgrade Reflects Changing Outlook

MarketsMOJO has upgraded Adani Ports’ Mojo Grade from Sell to Hold as of 8 Sep 2025, with a current Mojo Score of 64.0. This reflects a moderate improvement in the company’s fundamentals and market positioning, though the stock remains a cautious pick within the transport infrastructure sector. The market capitalisation stands at a substantial ₹3,39,154 crore, categorising it as a large-cap stock with significant institutional interest.

Despite the recent price weakness, the stock’s relative underperformance against the Sensex, which declined by 0.41% on the same day, and the sector’s outperformance, suggests selective profit-taking or repositioning by investors. The divergence between derivatives activity and spot price movement often signals complex market dynamics, including hedging strategies or speculative directional bets.

Directional Bets and Potential Market Scenarios

The sharp increase in open interest amid falling prices may indicate that traders are positioning for further downside or volatility in Adani Ports. Alternatively, some participants could be establishing protective puts or call spreads to hedge existing long positions, given the stock’s mixed technical signals. The elevated options notional value points to active options trading, which often precedes significant price moves.

Given the stock’s current trading range—above long-term moving averages but below short-term averages—market participants may be awaiting clearer directional cues. The transport infrastructure sector’s recent strength contrasts with Adani Ports’ softness, suggesting stock-specific factors at play, such as earnings expectations, regulatory developments, or macroeconomic influences on port operations.

Investor Takeaway

For investors and traders, the recent surge in open interest in Adani Ports’ derivatives market signals increased activity and potential volatility ahead. While the stock’s fundamentals remain solid with a large market cap and a Hold rating, the short-term technical weakness and falling delivery volumes warrant caution. Monitoring open interest trends alongside price action will be crucial to gauge whether the market is positioning for a rebound or further correction.

Given the stock’s liquidity and active options market, sophisticated investors may find opportunities to deploy hedging strategies or tactical trades. However, the divergence between sector performance and the stock’s price suggests that selective stock-specific risks remain, necessitating a thorough analysis of upcoming earnings, policy changes, and global trade conditions impacting port operations.

Conclusion

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd’s recent open interest surge highlights a complex interplay of market forces, with investors balancing between optimism on long-term prospects and caution over near-term headwinds. The stock’s Hold rating by MarketsMOJO reflects this balanced outlook. As the transport infrastructure sector continues to gain momentum, close attention to derivatives activity and volume patterns will provide valuable insights into evolving market sentiment and potential directional bets.

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