Adani Ports Sees Significant Open Interest Surge Amid Mixed Market Signals

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 29 Dec 2025, Adani Ports recorded an open interest (OI) of 91,517 contracts, up from 81,857 the previous day, marking an increase of 9,660 contracts or 11.8%. This rise in OI is significant as it indicates fresh positions being established rather than existing ones being squared off. The volume for the day stood at 56,643 contracts, reflecting robust trading activity in the futures and options segments.

The futures value traded was approximately ₹1,02,485.77 lakhs, while the options segment saw an astronomical notional value of ₹29,811.78 crores, culminating in a total derivatives turnover of ₹1,04,347.14 lakhs. Such elevated figures underscore the intense interest among traders and institutional participants in the stock’s near-term price movements.

Price Performance and Market Context

Despite the surge in derivatives activity, Adani Ports’ underlying share price has been under pressure. The stock declined by 1.62% on the day, underperforming its sector which gained 4.98%, and the broader Sensex which slipped marginally by 0.26%. Over the last two trading sessions, the stock has lost 2.07%, reflecting a cautious stance among equity investors.

Technically, the stock price remains above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a longer-term uptrend remains intact. However, it is trading below its 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages, signalling short-term weakness and potential consolidation. This mixed technical picture may be contributing to the divergent positioning seen in the derivatives market.

Investor Participation and Liquidity

Investor participation appears to be waning, with delivery volumes falling by 16.46% to 5.35 lakh shares on 26 Dec compared to the five-day average. This decline in delivery volume suggests reduced conviction among long-term holders, possibly due to recent price softness or broader market uncertainties.

Nevertheless, liquidity remains adequate for sizeable trades, with the stock’s average traded value supporting a trade size of approximately ₹3.67 crores based on 2% of the five-day average. This ensures that institutional investors can enter or exit positions without significant market impact.

Market Positioning and Directional Bets

The sharp increase in open interest alongside elevated volumes suggests that market participants are actively repositioning themselves. Given the stock’s recent price decline and underperformance relative to its sector, the surge in OI could reflect a mix of speculative short positions and hedging activity by institutional investors.

Options data, with a notional value exceeding ₹29,811 crores, indicates significant interest in both calls and puts. This could imply that traders are positioning for increased volatility or a potential directional move. The underlying value of ₹1,462 per share provides a reference point for strike prices attracting open interest.

Interestingly, the stock’s Mojo Score has improved to 64.0, upgrading its Mojo Grade from Sell to Hold as of 8 Sep 2025. This upgrade reflects a more balanced outlook on the stock’s fundamentals and technicals, possibly encouraging cautious accumulation by investors awaiting clearer directional cues.

Sector and Industry Context

Adani Ports operates within the transport infrastructure sector, a segment that has gained 4.78% recently, outperforming the stock itself. The company’s large market capitalisation of ₹3,39,154 crores places it among the sector’s heavyweight stocks, making its price action and derivatives activity a bellwether for broader market sentiment in transport infrastructure.

Given the sector’s recent strength, the stock’s relative weakness and increased derivatives activity may indicate profit-taking or rotation into other transport infrastructure names. Alternatively, it could signal anticipation of near-term headwinds such as regulatory developments, macroeconomic factors, or company-specific news.

Implications for Investors

The current surge in open interest and volume in Adani Ports’ derivatives market suggests that traders are actively positioning for potential volatility or directional shifts. While the stock’s recent price weakness and underperformance relative to its sector warrant caution, the improved Mojo Grade to Hold indicates that the stock is not yet out of favour.

Investors should closely monitor the evolving open interest patterns, particularly the balance between call and put options, to gauge market sentiment. Additionally, tracking delivery volumes and price movements relative to key moving averages will provide further clarity on the stock’s near-term trajectory.

Given the stock’s liquidity and large market capitalisation, institutional investors can efficiently adjust their positions, which may lead to sharper price swings in response to macroeconomic or sector-specific developments.

Conclusion

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd’s recent open interest surge in derivatives highlights a phase of active repositioning amid mixed price signals. While the stock has underperformed its sector and experienced short-term selling pressure, the underlying fundamentals and technical indicators suggest a cautious but watchful stance among investors.

Market participants should remain vigilant to changes in derivatives positioning and volume trends, as these often presage significant price moves. The stock’s upgraded Mojo Grade to Hold and sizeable market cap reinforce its status as a key player in the transport infrastructure space, deserving close attention in the coming weeks.

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