Adani Ports Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Amid Mixed Market Signals

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 29 Dec 2025, Adani Ports recorded an open interest (OI) of 94,064 contracts, up from 81,857 the previous day, marking an increase of 12,207 contracts or 14.91%. This rise in OI is accompanied by a futures volume of 80,976 contracts, indicating robust trading activity in the derivatives market. The futures value stood at ₹1,56,460.63 lakhs, while the options segment contributed a substantial ₹41,603.14 crores, culminating in a total derivatives value of approximately ₹1,59,075.65 lakhs.

The underlying stock price closed at ₹1,458, having touched an intraday low of ₹1,453.3, reflecting a 2.27% decline on the day. This price movement contrasts with the broader Transport Infrastructure sector, which gained 4.5%, and the Sensex, which marginally declined by 0.41%. The stock’s underperformance relative to its sector by 6.44% highlights a divergence between derivatives market enthusiasm and spot market sentiment.

Market Positioning and Directional Bets

The surge in open interest alongside elevated volumes suggests that market participants are actively repositioning. Typically, an increase in OI with rising volumes indicates fresh positions being initiated rather than existing ones being squared off. Given the stock’s recent two-day consecutive fall, with a cumulative decline of 2.63%, the derivatives market activity may be reflecting speculative interest in potential rebounds or hedging strategies against further downside.

Adani Ports’ futures contracts are trading above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages but remain below the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day averages. This technical setup points to a medium-term bullish bias tempered by short-term weakness, which could be attracting traders looking to capitalise on volatility or anticipate a technical correction.

Investor participation in the cash segment appears to be waning, with delivery volumes falling by 16.46% to 5.35 lakh shares on 26 Dec compared to the five-day average. This decline in delivery volume suggests reduced conviction among long-term holders, potentially prompting increased activity in the derivatives market as traders seek to express views with greater leverage and flexibility.

Implications for Investors and Traders

The increase in open interest and volume in Adani Ports’ derivatives signals a growing interest in the stock’s near-term price direction. Traders may be positioning for a potential rebound given the stock’s proximity to key moving averages and the sector’s positive momentum. However, the stock’s recent underperformance and falling delivery volumes caution against overly bullish assumptions.

Adani Ports currently holds a Mojo Score of 64.0 with a Mojo Grade of Hold, upgraded from Sell on 8 Sep 2025. This rating reflects a cautious stance, balancing the company’s large-cap status and strong market presence against recent price weakness and mixed technical signals. The market cap grade of 1 underscores its standing as a large-cap stock with significant liquidity, supporting active trading in both cash and derivatives markets.

Liquidity remains adequate, with the stock’s average traded value supporting trade sizes of up to ₹3.67 crores based on 2% of the five-day average traded value. This liquidity profile facilitates the execution of sizeable derivative positions without excessive market impact, attracting institutional and retail traders alike.

Sector and Broader Market Context

The Transport Infrastructure sector has been resilient, gaining 4.5% on the day, buoyed by positive sentiment around infrastructure spending and trade facilitation. Adani Ports, as a key player in port operations and special economic zones, stands to benefit from these macroeconomic tailwinds. However, the stock’s recent price softness suggests that investors are weighing sector optimism against company-specific factors such as valuation, earnings outlook, or regulatory developments.

Comparatively, the Sensex’s modest decline of 0.41% indicates a broadly cautious market environment, with pockets of sectoral strength. The divergence between Adani Ports’ derivatives activity and spot price performance may reflect speculative positioning or hedging strategies amid this nuanced market landscape.

Outlook and Strategic Considerations

For investors and traders, the current derivatives market activity in Adani Ports offers both opportunities and risks. The elevated open interest and volume suggest that the stock is a focal point for directional bets, possibly anticipating a technical rebound or a volatility-driven trading range. However, the stock’s recent price decline and lower delivery volumes imply caution, signalling that long-term investor conviction may be subdued.

Market participants should closely monitor upcoming earnings releases, sector developments, and macroeconomic indicators that could influence port traffic and infrastructure investments. Additionally, tracking changes in open interest alongside price movements will be crucial to discerning whether the derivatives activity is driven by fresh bullish positions or protective hedges.

Given the stock’s Hold rating and moderate Mojo Score, a balanced approach is advisable. Traders may consider tactical positions with defined risk parameters, while long-term investors might await clearer signs of trend reversal or fundamental improvement before increasing exposure.

Summary

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd’s sharp increase in open interest and sustained volume in derivatives markets highlights a surge in market engagement amid a backdrop of recent price weakness. While the Transport Infrastructure sector remains robust, the stock’s underperformance and declining delivery volumes suggest a nuanced outlook. Investors and traders should weigh the mixed signals carefully, leveraging derivatives data alongside technical and fundamental analysis to inform their strategies.

Only Rs. 9,999 - Get MojoOne + Stock of the Week for 1 Year (MRP = Rs. 34,999) Start Today