Key Events This Week
Jan 19: Technical momentum shifts amid bearish signals
Jan 21: Sharp open interest surge amid mixed technical signals
Jan 23: Week closes at Rs.3,659.85 (-1.62%)
Monday, 19 January: Technical Momentum Turns Bearish
On Monday, Avenue Supermarts opened the week with a notable shift in technical momentum towards a bearish stance. The stock closed at Rs.3,764.20, down 0.31% from the previous close, underperforming the Sensex which fell 0.49%. Key technical indicators such as the MACD and moving averages signalled increased downward pressure, with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day averages. Despite this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained neutral, suggesting no immediate oversold conditions.
The stock’s price action reflected heightened volatility, with an intraday range between Rs.3,740.00 and Rs.3,825.10. This consolidation phase amid bearish signals indicated caution among investors, especially as the stock remained well below its 52-week high of Rs.4,916.30. The Mojo Score of 38.0 and a Sell rating underscored the deteriorating technical outlook.
Wednesday, 21 January: Surge in Derivatives Open Interest Amid Mixed Signals
Midweek, Avenue Supermarts saw a sharp 11.8% increase in open interest in its derivatives segment, rising from 73,435 to 82,133 contracts. This surge occurred despite the stock’s underlying price remaining relatively stable at Rs.3,655.70, a marginal decline of 0.16%. The futures volume was robust at 69,158 contracts, with a combined futures and options notional value exceeding ₹15,559 crores, highlighting strong market participation.
This spike in derivatives activity suggested that traders were actively repositioning, possibly anticipating volatility or directional moves. However, the stock continued to trade below all major moving averages, signalling persistent bearish momentum. Delivery volumes also declined by 25.9% compared to the five-day average, indicating reduced conviction among long-term investors.
The mixed technical signals, combined with increased derivatives activity, pointed to a complex market environment where speculative bets and hedging strategies were prevalent. The stock’s relative resilience compared to the sector and Sensex on this day hinted at potential short-term support, though broader caution remained.
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Friday, 23 January: Week Ends with a Modest Decline
The week concluded with Avenue Supermarts closing at Rs.3,659.85, down 1.62% on the day and marking a 3.07% decline for the week. This performance slightly outpaced the Sensex’s 3.31% fall, reflecting relative resilience amid broader market weakness. The stock’s volume remained subdued at 4,412 shares, consistent with the cautious investor sentiment observed throughout the week.
Despite the decline, the stock’s technical indicators remained bearish, with prices below key moving averages and a Mojo Score firmly in the Sell category. The mixed signals from derivatives activity and technical momentum suggest that while short-term rebounds may occur, the prevailing trend remains under pressure.
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Daily Price Performance: Avenue Supermarts vs Sensex
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Rs.3,764.20 | -0.31% | 36,650.97 | -0.49% |
| 2026-01-20 | Rs.3,661.60 | -2.73% | 35,984.65 | -1.82% |
| 2026-01-21 | Rs.3,655.70 | -0.16% | 35,815.26 | -0.47% |
| 2026-01-22 | Rs.3,719.95 | +1.76% | 36,088.66 | +0.76% |
| 2026-01-23 | Rs.3,659.85 | -1.62% | 35,609.90 | -1.33% |
Key Takeaways
Bearish Technical Momentum: The week began with a clear shift to bearish technical indicators, including MACD and moving averages, signalling downward pressure on the stock price. This was reflected in the stock’s inability to sustain gains and its trading below key averages.
Derivatives Market Activity: The sharp rise in open interest on 21 January highlighted increased speculative and hedging activity, suggesting that traders are positioning for potential volatility despite the underlying price remaining relatively stable.
Relative Resilience vs Sensex: Although Avenue Supermarts declined 3.07% for the week, it marginally outperformed the Sensex’s 3.31% fall, indicating some defensive qualities amid broader market weakness.
Reduced Investor Conviction: Declining delivery volumes and a Mojo Score of 38.0 with a Sell rating point to waning confidence among long-term holders, reinforcing the cautious outlook.
Mixed Signals Require Vigilance: While some longer-term indicators show mild bullishness, the prevailing short-term trend remains negative. Investors should monitor price action closely, especially around key support and resistance levels.
Conclusion
Avenue Supermarts Ltd experienced a challenging week marked by a shift to bearish technical momentum and heightened derivatives market activity. Despite a modest outperformance relative to the Sensex, the stock’s technical indicators and declining investor participation suggest caution. The surge in open interest points to increased market positioning and potential volatility ahead, but the underlying trend remains under pressure. Investors should remain attentive to price movements and volume trends in the coming weeks to gauge whether the stock can stabilise or if further downside is likely.
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