Current Price and Trading Range
The stock closed at ₹3,819.25 on 5 Feb 2026, up from the previous close of ₹3,776.20. Intraday volatility was evident with a high of ₹3,849.00 and a low of ₹3,747.65. This price action remains well below the 52-week high of ₹4,916.30 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹3,337.10, indicating a consolidation phase within a broad trading range.
Technical Trend Overview
Technical analysis reveals a nuanced momentum shift. The overall technical trend has moved from a bearish stance to mildly bearish, reflecting a tentative improvement but still cautious outlook. The daily moving averages are mildly bearish, suggesting that short-term price averages remain under pressure but are not in a steep decline.
MACD and Momentum Oscillators
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, signalling that the underlying momentum is still tilted towards sellers. This persistent bearish MACD suggests that despite recent price gains, the stock has yet to establish a robust upward momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly and monthly timeframes shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral zones. This lack of RSI extremes indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions, implying that the stock is in a balanced state without strong directional bias from momentum oscillators.
Bollinger Bands and Volatility
Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts are mildly bearish, reflecting a slight downward pressure on price volatility. The bands suggest that price movements are contained within a narrowing range, which often precedes a breakout or breakdown. Investors should watch for any expansion in band width as a potential signal of increased volatility and directional movement.
KST and Dow Theory Signals
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator presents a mixed picture: bearish on the weekly timeframe but mildly bullish on the monthly. This divergence highlights short-term weakness contrasted with a cautiously optimistic longer-term outlook. Similarly, Dow Theory assessments are mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, reinforcing the view that the stock remains under moderate selling pressure but without a decisive downtrend.
On-Balance Volume and Market Sentiment
On-Balance Volume (OBV) is mildly bearish on the weekly chart and shows no clear trend monthly. This suggests that volume flows are not strongly supporting price advances, which could limit the sustainability of recent gains. The absence of a strong OBV trend indicates that institutional participation may be subdued or indecisive at present.
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Comparative Returns and Market Context
When analysing Avenue Supermarts’ returns relative to the Sensex, the stock has outperformed the benchmark over shorter periods but lagged over longer horizons. For instance, over the past week, Avenue Supermarts gained 2.25% compared to the Sensex’s 1.79%. Over one month, the stock rose 2.64% while the Sensex declined 2.27%, and year-to-date returns show a modest 1.04% gain versus a 1.65% loss for the Sensex.
However, over the past year, Avenue Supermarts posted a negative return of -2.35%, underperforming the Sensex’s 6.66% gain. Longer-term returns over three and five years stand at 10.05% and 28.88% respectively, trailing the Sensex’s 37.76% and 65.60%. This performance gap highlights the stock’s relative underperformance in a broader market rally, underscoring the importance of technical signals in timing investment decisions.
Market Capitalisation and Mojo Ratings
Avenue Supermarts holds a Market Cap Grade of 1, reflecting its sizeable market capitalisation within the diversified retail sector. The company’s Mojo Score currently stands at 44.0, with a Mojo Grade downgraded from Hold to Sell as of 31 Oct 2025. This downgrade reflects deteriorating technical and fundamental signals, cautioning investors about the stock’s near-term prospects.
Moving Averages and Short-Term Outlook
The daily moving averages remain mildly bearish, with the stock price hovering near the short-term averages but failing to decisively break above key resistance levels. This suggests that while the stock is attempting to stabilise, it has yet to confirm a sustained uptrend. Traders should monitor the 50-day and 200-day moving averages closely for potential crossover signals that could indicate a shift in momentum.
Technical Summary and Investor Implications
In summary, Avenue Supermarts Ltd is navigating a complex technical landscape. The shift from bearish to mildly bearish trends, combined with mixed signals from MACD, KST, and Dow Theory, suggests a cautious stance. The absence of strong RSI or OBV signals further emphasises the need for investors to remain vigilant and consider broader market conditions before committing to new positions.
Given the current technical profile, the stock may experience continued consolidation with intermittent volatility. Investors with a medium to long-term horizon should weigh the recent downgrade in Mojo Grade and the stock’s relative underperformance against the Sensex before increasing exposure.
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Looking Ahead
Investors should continue to monitor key technical indicators for confirmation of trend reversals or breakdowns. A sustained break above the 52-week high of ₹4,916.30 would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a fall below the 52-week low of ₹3,337.10 could confirm a deeper correction phase.
In the context of the diversified retail sector, Avenue Supermarts’ technical signals suggest that while the stock is not currently a strong buy, it remains a significant player with potential for recovery if broader market conditions improve and technical momentum strengthens.
Conclusion
Avenue Supermarts Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes highlight a stock in transition. The mildly bearish trend and mixed indicator signals call for a measured approach by investors. While short-term momentum remains subdued, the stock’s relative strength over recent weeks compared to the Sensex offers some optimism. Careful monitoring of moving averages, MACD, and volume indicators will be crucial in assessing the stock’s next directional move.
For investors seeking to navigate the evolving landscape of diversified retail stocks, understanding these technical nuances is essential to making informed decisions in a market characterised by volatility and shifting momentum.
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