Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
On 23 Feb 2026, Bajaj Finance's open interest in futures and options contracts rose sharply to 1,83,792 contracts from 1,63,387 the previous day, marking an increase of 20,405 contracts or 12.49%. This expansion in OI was accompanied by a daily volume of 1,05,519 contracts, reflecting heightened trading activity and investor interest in the stock's derivatives.
The futures segment alone accounted for a substantial value of ₹3,03,726 lakhs, while the options segment's notional value soared to ₹52,283.7 crores, culminating in a total derivatives market value of approximately ₹3,08,437 lakhs. This robust participation underscores the stock's liquidity and attractiveness for both hedging and speculative strategies.
Price Performance and Technical Positioning
Bajaj Finance outperformed its sector peers on the day, delivering a 0.98% gain compared to the NBFC sector's 0.44% and the broader Sensex's 0.40%. The stock has recorded consecutive gains over the past two sessions, accumulating a 2.45% return in this period. Notably, Bajaj Finance is trading above all key moving averages — 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — signalling sustained bullish momentum.
However, investor participation in terms of delivery volumes has declined, with a 26.05% drop in delivery volume to 51.92 lakh shares on 20 Feb compared to the 5-day average. This divergence between price strength and falling delivery volumes may indicate increased speculative trading in derivatives rather than long-term accumulation in the cash market.
Market Positioning and Directional Bets
The surge in open interest alongside rising prices typically suggests fresh long positions being established, reflecting bullish sentiment among traders. Given Bajaj Finance's large market capitalisation of ₹6,47,294 crores and its status as a heavyweight in the NBFC sector, such positioning can have a meaningful impact on market dynamics.
Investors appear to be positioning for further upside, supported by the stock's strong technicals and sectoral tailwinds. The increase in futures open interest by over 20,000 contracts indicates that institutional players and high-frequency traders may be ramping up exposure, possibly anticipating positive earnings or favourable macroeconomic developments.
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Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings
Bajaj Finance currently holds a Mojo Score of 65.0, placing it in the 'Hold' category, a downgrade from its previous 'Buy' rating as of 1 Feb 2026. The downgrade reflects a cautious stance amid valuation concerns and moderating growth expectations in the NBFC sector. Despite this, the stock's market cap grade remains at 1, indicating its large-cap stature and significant market influence.
Analysts note that while the fundamentals remain robust, the recent moderation in investor participation and the downgrade suggest a need for selective exposure. The stock's liquidity, with a trade size capacity of ₹12.83 crores based on 2% of the 5-day average traded value, supports active trading strategies but warrants careful risk management.
Sectoral Context and Broader Market Implications
The NBFC sector has been under pressure due to tightening credit conditions and regulatory scrutiny, yet Bajaj Finance continues to demonstrate resilience. Its ability to outperform the sector and maintain strong technicals amidst these headwinds is noteworthy. The open interest surge may also reflect market participants positioning ahead of upcoming corporate announcements or macroeconomic data releases.
Investors should monitor the evolving derivatives activity closely, as sustained increases in OI combined with price appreciation often precede significant directional moves. Conversely, any abrupt unwinding of positions could trigger volatility, especially given the stock's sizeable derivatives market footprint.
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Investor Takeaway
For investors and traders, the recent surge in Bajaj Finance's derivatives open interest signals an active repositioning in the stock. The combination of rising prices, expanding OI, and strong volume suggests a bullish bias, though tempered by the recent Mojo Grade downgrade and falling delivery volumes.
Market participants should weigh the stock’s technical strength against sectoral risks and valuation metrics. Those seeking exposure to the NBFC space may consider Bajaj Finance as a core holding but remain vigilant for potential volatility arising from derivatives market dynamics.
In summary, the derivatives market activity in Bajaj Finance reflects a nuanced picture of optimism mixed with caution, highlighting the importance of a balanced approach in portfolio allocation.
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