Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
On 23 Feb 2026, Bajaj Finance's open interest in futures and options contracts rose sharply to 1,88,072 contracts from 1,63,387 the previous day, marking an increase of 24,685 contracts or 15.11%. This expansion in OI is accompanied by a futures volume of 1,33,518 contracts, reflecting robust trading activity. The combined futures and options value stands at approximately ₹37,366.66 crores, underscoring the stock's significant liquidity and investor interest.
The underlying stock price closed at ₹1,038, outperforming its NBFC sector peers by 0.44% and the Sensex by 0.46% on the day. Notably, Bajaj Finance has gained 2.13% over the past two sessions, maintaining a steady upward trajectory. The stock is trading above all key moving averages—5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day—indicating sustained bullish momentum.
Market Positioning and Investor Behaviour
The surge in open interest alongside rising volumes typically signals fresh positions being established rather than existing ones being squared off. This suggests that market participants are increasingly positioning themselves for further upside in Bajaj Finance. However, delivery volumes have declined by 26.05% compared to the 5-day average, indicating a possible shift from long-term holding to short-term trading or speculative activity in the derivatives market.
Given Bajaj Finance's large market capitalisation of ₹6,46,111.40 crores and a Mojo Score of 65.0 with a Hold rating (downgraded from Buy on 1 Feb 2026), investors appear to be cautiously optimistic. The stock's liquidity supports sizeable trade sizes up to ₹12.83 crores based on 2% of the 5-day average traded value, making it attractive for institutional and retail traders alike.
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Directional Bets and Derivative Market Sentiment
The increase in open interest, combined with rising futures volume, points to a growing bullish bias among traders. The futures value of ₹3,67,591.88 lakhs and options value exceeding ₹67,945.91 crores highlight the scale of derivative market participation. This elevated activity often precedes significant price moves, as traders build positions anticipating further gains.
Moreover, Bajaj Finance's outperformance relative to the NBFC sector and Sensex suggests that investors are favouring this large-cap NBFC as a preferred play on the sector's growth prospects. The stock's technical strength, reflected in its position above all major moving averages, supports the view that the recent open interest surge is driven by genuine bullish conviction rather than short-covering or hedging.
However, the downgrade from Buy to Hold by MarketsMOJO on 1 Feb 2026 signals some caution. The Mojo Grade of Hold reflects concerns over valuation or near-term risks, which investors should weigh against the positive technical signals and market positioning.
Broader Market Context and Sector Implications
Bajaj Finance operates within the NBFC sector, which has been under scrutiny due to regulatory changes and macroeconomic factors. Despite these challenges, the company's strong market capitalisation and liquidity profile make it a bellwether for the sector. The recent open interest surge may indicate that traders expect the company to navigate sector headwinds effectively, possibly benefiting from improving credit demand and stable asset quality.
Investors should monitor upcoming earnings announcements and macroeconomic data closely, as these will likely influence derivative positioning and price action. The current open interest spike could either mark the start of a sustained rally or a short-term speculative peak, depending on broader market developments.
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Investor Takeaways and Outlook
For investors, the recent surge in open interest and volume in Bajaj Finance's derivatives market signals an important shift in market sentiment. The stock's technical strength and liquidity profile make it a compelling candidate for further upside, provided sector fundamentals remain supportive.
However, the downgrade to a Hold rating and falling delivery volumes suggest caution. Investors should consider the balance between technical momentum and fundamental risks, including valuation concerns and sector-specific challenges.
Active monitoring of open interest trends, price action, and sector developments will be crucial in assessing whether the current positioning translates into sustained gains or a potential reversal. Given the stock's large-cap status and significant market participation, Bajaj Finance remains a key barometer for NBFC sector sentiment in the near term.
Conclusion
Bajaj Finance Ltd's 15.11% jump in open interest, coupled with rising volumes and price outperformance, reflects a growing bullish stance among market participants. While technical indicators and liquidity support further gains, the Hold rating and reduced delivery volumes counsel prudence. Investors should weigh these factors carefully and stay alert to evolving market signals to capitalise on potential opportunities in this leading NBFC.
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