Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
The latest data reveals that Bajaj Finance’s open interest (OI) in derivatives rose from 163,387 contracts to 190,384 contracts, an increase of 26,997 contracts or 16.52%. This substantial rise in OI, coupled with a futures volume of 155,658 contracts, indicates that traders are actively building or adjusting positions rather than closing them out. The futures value stands at approximately ₹4,33,541.69 lakhs, while the options value is significantly higher at ₹78,596.79 crores, reflecting the stock’s deep liquidity and active options market.
Underlying the derivatives activity, the stock’s current price is ₹1,030, trading above all key moving averages – 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day – signalling a sustained bullish technical setup. However, the delivery volume on 20 Feb was 51.92 lakh shares, down by 26.05% compared to the 5-day average, suggesting a decline in long-term investor participation despite the short-term momentum.
Market Positioning and Directional Bets
The increase in open interest alongside rising futures volume typically points to fresh directional bets. Given the stock’s two-day consecutive gains totalling 1.64%, market participants appear to be positioning for further upside. The fact that the stock is trading above all major moving averages supports this bullish sentiment. However, the relatively muted price change of 0.13% on the day compared to the sector’s 0.24% and Sensex’s 0.44% gains suggests some caution or profit-taking at current levels.
Investors should note that the Mojo Score for Bajaj Finance has been downgraded from a Buy to a Hold as of 1 Feb 2026, with a current score of 65.0. This reflects a more cautious stance by analysts, possibly due to valuation concerns or broader macroeconomic factors impacting the NBFC sector. The company remains a large-cap heavyweight with a market capitalisation of ₹6,41,849 crore, maintaining its status as a key sector bellwether.
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Sector Context and Comparative Performance
Bajaj Finance’s performance today is broadly in line with the Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC) sector, which gained 0.24%, while the Sensex advanced 0.44%. The stock’s 0.13% gain is modest but consistent with its recent two-day rally. The sector’s overall strength is supported by improving credit demand and stable asset quality trends, although concerns around interest rate volatility and regulatory scrutiny persist.
Liquidity remains robust, with the stock’s average traded value supporting trade sizes up to ₹12.83 crore based on 2% of the 5-day average traded value. This ensures that institutional investors can execute sizeable trades without significant market impact, a key factor for large-cap stocks like Bajaj Finance.
Investor Participation and Delivery Volumes
Despite the positive technical signals, the falling delivery volume indicates a decline in long-term investor conviction. The 26.05% drop in delivery volume compared to the 5-day average suggests that some investors may be booking profits or adopting a wait-and-watch approach amid mixed macroeconomic signals. This divergence between derivatives activity and delivery volumes highlights the nuanced positioning in the stock, with short-term traders more active than long-term holders.
Implications for Investors
The surge in open interest and futures volume points to increased speculative interest and potential directional bets on further price appreciation. However, the downgrade in Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold and the subdued price movement relative to sector and benchmark indices counsel caution. Investors should weigh the technical momentum against fundamental considerations such as valuation, sector outlook, and macroeconomic risks.
Given Bajaj Finance’s large-cap status and dominant position in the NBFC sector, it remains a key stock to watch for market participants seeking exposure to financial services. The current derivatives activity may presage a breakout or a consolidation phase, depending on broader market cues and earnings developments.
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Outlook and Final Assessment
In summary, Bajaj Finance Ltd’s recent open interest surge in derivatives reflects a market increasingly engaged in positioning for potential price moves. The stock’s technical strength is evident, yet the downgrade in analyst sentiment and falling delivery volumes suggest a more cautious stance among long-term investors. Market participants should monitor upcoming earnings, sector developments, and macroeconomic indicators closely to gauge the sustainability of the current momentum.
For investors with a medium to long-term horizon, the Hold rating and Mojo Score of 65.0 imply that while the stock remains fundamentally sound, it may not offer immediate upside relative to peers or alternative NBFCs. Short-term traders, however, may find opportunities in the heightened derivatives activity and technical setups.
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