Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
The open interest in Dabur’s futures and options contracts rose from 35,810 to 40,026 contracts, an increase of 4,216 contracts on the day. This 11.77% jump in OI accompanied a futures volume of 28,286 contracts, indicating robust participation in the derivatives market. The futures value traded stood at approximately ₹24,283 lakhs, while the options segment saw an astronomical notional value of nearly ₹15,919 crores, underscoring the stock’s liquidity and interest among traders.
Such a surge in OI typically suggests that new positions are being established rather than existing ones being squared off. This can be interpreted as a sign of conviction among market participants, either building bullish or bearish bets depending on the price action and volume patterns.
Price Action and Market Context
On the price front, Dabur’s stock closed at ₹509, down 1.40% on the day, underperforming the FMCG sector which gained 0.07%, and the broader Sensex which declined marginally by 0.17%. The stock touched an intraday low of ₹505.55, reflecting selling pressure. Notably, the weighted average price of traded volumes was closer to the day’s low, indicating that most trades occurred near the lower price range, a bearish signal.
Technically, the stock remains above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a longer-term uptrend. However, it is trading below its 5-day and 20-day moving averages, signalling short-term weakness and potential consolidation or correction.
Investor participation also showed signs of waning, with delivery volumes falling by 28.35% to 5.32 lakh shares compared to the five-day average. This decline in delivery volume suggests reduced conviction among long-term holders, possibly indicating profit-booking or cautious stance ahead of upcoming events.
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Interpreting the Surge in Open Interest
The increase in open interest alongside a price decline often points to fresh short positions being initiated, as traders anticipate further downside. However, the sizeable volume and high notional values in options suggest that market participants are also actively hedging or speculating on volatility.
Given Dabur’s status as a mid-cap FMCG stock with a market capitalisation of ₹90,556 crores, it attracts a diverse set of investors ranging from institutional to retail traders. The current Mojo Score of 72.0 and an upgraded Mojo Grade from Hold to Buy on 16 Feb 2026 reflect improving fundamentals and positive medium-term outlook, despite short-term volatility.
Market participants should note that the stock’s liquidity is sufficient to support trades up to ₹1.24 crore based on 2% of the five-day average traded value, ensuring ease of entry and exit for sizeable positions.
Sector and Broader Market Comparison
While Dabur’s stock price declined by 1.40%, the FMCG sector managed a marginal gain of 0.07%, indicating relative underperformance. The broader Sensex also declined by 0.17%, reflecting a cautious market mood. This divergence suggests that Dabur’s recent price action and OI surge may be driven by company-specific factors or derivative market positioning rather than sector-wide trends.
Investors should monitor upcoming quarterly results, management commentary, and macroeconomic indicators impacting consumer demand to better gauge the stock’s trajectory.
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Potential Directional Bets and Investor Strategy
The derivatives market activity suggests that traders are positioning for increased volatility in Dabur’s stock. The rise in open interest coupled with falling prices and volume concentration near intraday lows points to a cautious or bearish short-term outlook among some participants.
However, the upgraded Mojo Grade to Buy and a solid Mojo Score of 72.0 indicate that the company’s fundamentals remain strong, favouring a medium to long-term positive view. Investors with a longer horizon may consider this dip as a potential entry point, especially if the stock stabilises above key moving averages.
Conversely, short-term traders might look to capitalise on the current momentum by monitoring option open interest concentrations, strike prices, and expiry dates to identify key support and resistance levels.
Given the delivery volume decline, it is prudent for investors to watch for any shifts in institutional holdings or insider activity that could signal a change in trend.
Conclusion
Dabur India Ltd.’s recent surge in open interest in the derivatives market highlights a phase of active repositioning by traders amid mixed price signals. While short-term price action suggests some selling pressure, the company’s upgraded fundamental outlook and strong market cap underpin a positive medium-term investment case.
Market participants should remain vigilant of evolving volume patterns, moving average crossovers, and sectoral trends to navigate the stock’s near-term volatility effectively. The interplay between derivatives positioning and underlying price movement will be key to understanding Dabur’s next directional move.
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