Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
The open interest (OI) in Dabur India Ltd. futures and options contracts rose sharply from 35,810 to 40,928 contracts, an increase of 5,118 contracts or 14.29% on 18 Feb 2026. This rise in OI was accompanied by a futures volume of 33,356 contracts, indicating robust trading activity. The combined futures and options value stood at approximately ₹30,670.63 lakhs, with futures contributing ₹29,125.36 lakhs and options an overwhelming ₹18,703.38 crores in notional value.
Such a pronounced increase in OI alongside substantial volume typically reflects fresh positions being initiated rather than existing ones being squared off. This suggests that market participants are actively repositioning themselves in Dabur’s derivatives, possibly anticipating a significant price movement in the near term.
Price Action and Technical Context
Despite the surge in derivatives activity, Dabur’s stock price declined by 2.25% on the day, underperforming the FMCG sector’s modest gain of 0.17% and the flat Sensex. The stock touched an intraday low of ₹503.5, down 2.57%, and traded below all key moving averages — 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — signalling a bearish technical setup. The weighted average price indicated that more volume was traded near the day’s low, reinforcing selling pressure.
Investor participation also waned, with delivery volumes falling by 28.35% compared to the five-day average, suggesting reduced conviction among long-term holders. This combination of falling prices, increased open interest, and declining delivery volumes points to a scenario where short-term traders may be building positions, possibly on the short side, while longer-term investors remain cautious or are exiting.
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Market Positioning and Potential Directional Bets
The sharp increase in open interest amid a declining stock price suggests that traders may be initiating fresh short positions or hedging existing long exposure. The fact that Dabur’s futures and options notional values are substantial indicates significant capital deployment, reflecting strong conviction among derivatives traders.
Given Dabur’s current mojo score of 72.0 and an upgraded mojo grade from Hold to Buy as of 16 Feb 2026, there is a clear fundamental endorsement of the stock’s medium-term prospects. However, the immediate technical weakness and falling investor participation imply that the market is digesting recent gains and possibly bracing for a correction or consolidation phase.
Investors should note that Dabur’s market capitalisation stands at ₹90,556 crores, placing it firmly in the mid-cap segment. The stock’s liquidity is adequate for sizeable trades, with a 2% threshold of the five-day average traded value allowing for trade sizes up to ₹1.24 crores without significant market impact.
Sector and Benchmark Comparison
While Dabur underperformed the FMCG sector by 2.51% on the day, the broader Sensex remained flat, highlighting sector-specific pressures. The FMCG sector’s resilience contrasts with Dabur’s weakness, suggesting company-specific factors or profit-booking may be influencing the stock’s price action.
Historically, Dabur has demonstrated steady growth and resilience, supported by its diversified product portfolio and strong brand equity. The recent mojo grade upgrade reflects improved financial metrics and positive earnings outlook, which could attract renewed investor interest once the current volatility subsides.
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Implications for Investors
For investors, the current scenario presents a nuanced picture. The derivatives market activity signals increased speculation and potential volatility ahead. Traders may consider the elevated open interest as a sign of heightened interest in directional bets, but the underlying price weakness advises caution.
Long-term investors might view the mojo grade upgrade and strong fundamental backdrop as reasons to hold or accumulate on dips, while short-term traders could exploit the volatility for tactical trades. Monitoring open interest trends alongside price and volume movements will be crucial to gauge the evolving market sentiment.
In summary, Dabur India Ltd. is at a crossroads where fundamental strength meets technical uncertainty. The surge in open interest highlights active repositioning, and investors should stay alert to further developments in both the derivatives and cash markets.
Outlook and Conclusion
Dabur’s recent open interest surge in derivatives, combined with its mojo score upgrade, underscores a stock attracting renewed attention amid mixed signals. While the short-term technical picture remains bearish, the fundamental outlook is constructive, suggesting potential for recovery once the current consolidation phase concludes.
Investors and traders alike should closely monitor open interest changes, volume patterns, and price action to navigate the evolving landscape. Given Dabur’s mid-cap status and liquidity profile, it remains a key FMCG stock to watch in the coming weeks.
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