Hilton Metal Forging Ltd Falls to 52-Week Low of Rs.25.72

Stock Performance and Market Context

On 6 Feb 2026, Hilton Metal Forging Ltd (Stock ID: 622289) recorded a day change of -1.80%, closing at Rs.25.72, its lowest level in the past year. This decline extends a two-day losing streak during which the stock has shed approximately 6.65% in value. The price now stands well below all key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, signalling sustained bearish momentum.

In comparison, the Sensex opened flat but traded slightly lower, down 64.61 points or 0.03% at 83,289.95, remaining 3.44% shy of its 52-week high of 86,159.02. While the Sensex is trading below its 50-day moving average, the 50DMA remains above the 200DMA, indicating a mixed but relatively stable broader market environment. Hilton Metal Forging’s underperformance is thus notable against this backdrop.

Long-Term Returns and Relative Underperformance

Over the past year, Hilton Metal Forging Ltd’s stock has delivered a negative return of -66.21%, a stark contrast to the Sensex’s positive 6.73% gain during the same period. The stock’s 52-week high was Rs.84.19, underscoring the magnitude of the decline. Furthermore, the company has underperformed the BSE500 index across multiple time frames, including the last three years, one year, and three months, highlighting persistent challenges in maintaining investor confidence and market valuation.

Fundamental Metrics and Credit Profile

Hilton Metal Forging Ltd’s fundamental strength remains subdued, as reflected in its average Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) of 5.85%, which is considered weak relative to industry standards. The company’s ability to service debt is also constrained, with a high Debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.56 times, indicating elevated leverage and potential pressure on cash flows.

These financial indicators contribute to the stock’s current Mojo Score of 37.0 and a Mojo Grade of Sell, which was downgraded from Strong Sell on 21 Jul 2025. The Market Cap Grade stands at 4, reflecting the company’s micro-cap status and associated valuation risks.

Recent Quarterly Performance Highlights

Despite the stock’s price weakness, Hilton Metal Forging Ltd reported a notable improvement in its recent quarterly results. Net sales for the quarter reached Rs.87.64 crores, representing a growth of 132.1% compared to the previous four-quarter average. Net profit surged by 1060%, with Profit Before Tax less Other Income (PBT less OI) rising by 2100% to Rs.1.32 crores. The operating profit to interest coverage ratio also improved, reaching 2.24 times, the highest in recent quarters.

These figures suggest pockets of operational improvement, although they have yet to translate into sustained stock price recovery or a reversal of the longer-term downtrend.

Valuation and Comparative Analysis

The company’s ROCE of 4.5 in the recent quarter, combined with an enterprise value to capital employed ratio of 0.9, indicates a very attractive valuation on a standalone basis. The stock is trading at a discount relative to its peers’ average historical valuations, which may reflect market caution given the company’s financial profile and sector dynamics.

Over the past year, while the stock price declined by 66.21%, the company’s profits increased by 78.4%, resulting in a PEG ratio of 0.4. This divergence between earnings growth and stock performance highlights the complex factors influencing investor sentiment and valuation in the Castings & Forgings sector.

Sector and Industry Considerations

Hilton Metal Forging Ltd operates within the Castings & Forgings industry, a sector that has experienced varied performance trends in recent years. The company’s stock has underperformed its sector peers, reflecting both company-specific factors and broader market conditions affecting castings and forgings manufacturers.

The sector’s cyclical nature and sensitivity to industrial demand fluctuations may have contributed to the stock’s price volatility and downward pressure. Additionally, the company’s micro-cap status and relatively modest market capitalisation have likely amplified the impact of market sentiment shifts.

Summary of Key Metrics

To encapsulate, Hilton Metal Forging Ltd’s stock performance and financial metrics as of early February 2026 are as follows:

• New 52-week low price: Rs.25.72
• One-year stock return: -66.21%
• Sensex one-year return: +6.73%
• Debt to EBITDA ratio: 4.56 times
• Average ROCE: 5.85%
• Net sales quarterly growth: 132.1%
• Net profit quarterly growth: 1060%
• Mojo Score: 37.0 (Sell grade)

These figures illustrate a complex picture of financial improvement in recent quarters juxtaposed with a sustained decline in stock price and market valuation.

Conclusion

Hilton Metal Forging Ltd’s fall to a 52-week low of Rs.25.72 reflects a continuation of a challenging period for the stock, marked by underperformance relative to the broader market and sector peers. While recent quarterly results indicate significant growth in sales and profits, the company’s overall financial profile, including leverage and return metrics, continues to weigh on investor sentiment. The stock’s valuation remains discounted, consistent with its current Mojo Grade of Sell, underscoring the cautious stance reflected in market pricing.

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