Strong Market Performance and Price Momentum
On 5 Jan 2026, HPCL’s stock surged by 1.13%, outperforming the Sensex which declined by 0.15% on the same day. The stock also outpaced its sector by 1.34%, demonstrating resilience amid broader market fluctuations. Notably, the stock reversed its trend after two consecutive days of decline, signalling renewed investor confidence. Intraday volatility was elevated at 42.41%, with the stock reaching an intraday high of Rs.508.45, a 2.56% increase from the previous close.
HPCL is currently trading above all key moving averages – 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day – underscoring a strong upward momentum. The stock’s high dividend yield of 3.13% at the current price further enhances its appeal to income-focused investors.
Consistent Outperformance Over Multiple Time Frames
HPCL’s performance over various periods highlights its sustained growth trajectory. Over the past week, the stock gained 5.69%, significantly outpacing the Sensex’s 1.10% rise. The one-month and three-month returns stand at 11.34% and 12.41% respectively, compared to the Sensex’s marginal decline of 0.09% and a 5.45% increase. The stock’s one-year return of 21.61% is more than double the Sensex’s 8.09% gain.
Longer-term performance is even more impressive. Over three years, HPCL has delivered a staggering 208.98% return, vastly outperforming the Sensex’s 41.88%. The five-year and ten-year returns of 240.48% and 298.96% respectively also eclipse the Sensex’s 76.79% and 234.75% gains, cementing HPCL’s status as a consistent market leader within the oil sector.
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Robust Financial Metrics Underpinning Growth
HPCL’s financial health remains strong, supported by healthy long-term growth rates. Net sales have expanded at an annualised rate of 13.76%, while operating profit has grown at an impressive 26.26%. The company has reported positive results for the last three consecutive quarters, reflecting operational strength and market demand.
Profit before tax excluding other income (PBT LESS OI) for the latest quarter stood at Rs.4,608.59 crores, marking a 57.9% increase compared to the average of the previous four quarters. Similarly, profit after tax (PAT) for the quarter was Rs.3,859.30 crores, up 51.2% against the prior four-quarter average. These figures highlight significant earnings acceleration.
Valuation and Return Ratios
The company’s return on capital employed (ROCE) is a healthy 17.1%, indicating efficient utilisation of capital. HPCL’s enterprise value to capital employed ratio stands at a modest 1.4, suggesting an attractive valuation relative to its capital base. The stock currently trades at a discount compared to its peers’ average historical valuations, offering value within the oil sector.
Over the past year, while the stock has generated a 21.61% return, profits have surged by 231.8%, resulting in a PEG ratio of zero, which signals strong earnings growth relative to price appreciation.
Institutional Confidence and Market Recognition
Institutional investors hold a significant 36.73% stake in HPCL, reflecting confidence from entities with extensive analytical resources. This level of institutional ownership often correlates with stability and thorough fundamental analysis backing the stock.
HPCL is ranked among the top 1% of companies rated by MarketsMojo across over 4,000 stocks. It holds a rank of 7 among all mid-cap companies and 16 across the entire market, underscoring its strong market position and quality credentials.
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Mojo Score and Recent Rating Upgrade
HPCL’s MarketsMojo score currently stands at 81.0, categorised as a Strong Buy. This represents an upgrade from the previous Buy rating, effective from 30 Dec 2025. The company’s market capitalisation grade is 2, reflecting its standing within the mid-cap segment.
The upgrade in rating aligns with the company’s consistent earnings growth, strong return ratios, and favourable valuation metrics, all of which have contributed to the stock’s recent price appreciation and record high.
Long-Term Consistency and Sector Leadership
HPCL has demonstrated consistent returns over the last three years, outperforming the BSE500 index in each annual period. This consistency is a testament to the company’s strategic positioning within the oil sector and its ability to generate shareholder value over extended periods.
The stock’s 10-year return of 298.96% surpasses the Sensex’s 234.75%, highlighting its long-term capital appreciation potential. Such sustained performance is indicative of a company with solid fundamentals and effective management.
Summary of Key Metrics
To summarise, HPCL’s stock has reached an all-time high of Rs.508.45, supported by:
- Outperformance versus Sensex and sector indices across multiple time frames
- Strong quarterly earnings growth with PBT LESS OI up 57.9% and PAT up 51.2%
- Healthy long-term sales and operating profit growth rates of 13.76% and 26.26% respectively
- Attractive valuation with ROCE of 17.1% and EV/Capital Employed of 1.4
- High institutional ownership at 36.73%
- Recognition as a top-rated stock by MarketsMojo with a Strong Buy rating
This milestone reflects HPCL’s strong market position and financial discipline, marking a significant chapter in its equity market journey.
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