Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
The latest data reveals that Hindustan Petroleum’s open interest (OI) in derivatives rose sharply by 3,903 contracts, a 17.89% increase from the previous day’s 21,820 to 25,723. This notable expansion in OI was accompanied by a substantial volume of 31,765 contracts traded, underscoring active participation from traders and investors. The combined futures and options value stood at approximately ₹50,281.09 lakhs, with futures contributing ₹43,998.18 lakhs and options an overwhelming ₹27,810,089,194 lakhs, highlighting the dominance of options in the derivatives market for this stock.
The surge in open interest alongside rising volumes typically indicates fresh positions being established rather than existing ones being squared off. This pattern suggests that market participants are positioning themselves for a potential continuation of the current trend or a significant price move in the near term.
Price Performance and Technical Strength
On the price front, Hindustan Petroleum outperformed its Oil Exploration/Refineries sector, which gained 2.54% on the day, by delivering a 5.76% increase, touching an intraday high of ₹496. This marked a new 52-week high for the stock, signalling strong bullish momentum. The stock’s closing price was well above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the positive technical outlook.
Such a confluence of technical strength and rising open interest often attracts momentum traders and institutional investors, who may view the stock as poised for further gains. The stock’s market capitalisation stands at ₹1,00,912 crore, categorising it as a mid-cap with sufficient liquidity to support sizeable trades, evidenced by its ability to handle trade sizes of up to ₹2.25 crore based on 2% of the 5-day average traded value.
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Market Positioning and Investor Sentiment
The sharp increase in open interest, coupled with a 212.24% rise in delivery volume to 27.95 lakh shares on 30 Dec 2025 compared to the 5-day average, indicates rising investor participation and conviction. This heightened delivery volume suggests that investors are not merely trading on a speculative basis but are increasingly willing to hold the stock, reflecting confidence in its fundamentals and growth prospects.
Hindustan Petroleum’s Mojo Score of 81.0 and an upgraded Mojo Grade to Strong Buy from Buy as of 30 Dec 2025 further validate the positive market sentiment. The stock’s high dividend yield of 3.31% at the current price adds an attractive income component for investors, enhancing its appeal amid volatile market conditions.
Directional Bets and Derivatives Strategy
The derivatives market activity suggests that traders are positioning for an upward move, supported by the stock’s breakout to new highs and strong sectoral tailwinds. The increase in futures open interest indicates fresh long positions, while the substantial options value points to active call option buying, which is often a bullish signal. This combination implies that market participants expect the stock to sustain its rally or potentially accelerate gains in the near term.
However, investors should remain cautious of potential volatility, as the large open interest build-up can also lead to sharp price swings if market sentiment shifts. Monitoring the put-call ratio and changes in open interest across strike prices will be crucial to gauge evolving market expectations and risk appetite.
Sectoral Context and Broader Market Comparison
Within the Oil sector, Hindustan Petroleum’s outperformance relative to the sector’s 2.54% gain and the Sensex’s modest 0.81% rise highlights its leadership position. The stock’s ability to outperform both its sector and the benchmark index on a day of strong derivatives activity underscores its attractiveness to both retail and institutional investors.
Given the stock’s mid-cap status and liquidity profile, it remains accessible for a wide range of investors, from large funds to active traders. The current market environment, characterised by rising crude oil prices and improving refining margins, provides a supportive backdrop for the company’s earnings growth and valuation expansion.
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Outlook and Investor Takeaways
Hindustan Petroleum’s recent surge in open interest and volume, combined with its technical breakout and strong fundamentals, positions it favourably for continued upside potential. The upgraded Mojo Grade to Strong Buy reflects improved quality metrics and positive earnings momentum, making it a compelling pick within the Oil sector.
Investors should watch for sustained open interest growth and volume confirmation to validate the strength of the current rally. Additionally, monitoring crude oil price trends and refining margin developments will be key to assessing the stock’s medium-term prospects.
While the stock’s high dividend yield offers an attractive cushion, the elevated derivatives activity suggests that volatility may increase, necessitating prudent risk management for traders and investors alike.
Overall, Hindustan Petroleum’s market positioning, liquidity, and positive technical signals make it a noteworthy candidate for portfolios seeking exposure to the Indian oil refining space with a blend of growth and income characteristics.
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