Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
The latest data reveals that Hindustan Petroleum's open interest (OI) in derivatives rose sharply by 3,214 contracts, a 14.73% increase from the previous day's 21,820 to 25,034. This notable expansion in OI was accompanied by a volume of 25,175 contracts, closely matching the OI figure, indicating active participation from traders and fresh positions being established rather than mere unwinding.
The futures value stood at ₹36,131.05 lakhs, while the options segment exhibited an enormous notional value of approximately ₹21,830 crore, culminating in a total derivatives value of ₹41,034.20 lakhs. Such elevated figures underscore the intense interest in HPCL's derivatives, suggesting that market participants are positioning for meaningful price movements.
Price Performance and Technical Strength
On the cash market front, HPCL's stock price surged to an intraday high of ₹495.30, marking a fresh 52-week peak and a day gain of 5.65%. This outperformance was notable against the Oil Exploration/Refineries sector's 2.28% rise and the Sensex's modest 0.68% advance. The stock's momentum is further validated by its trading above all key moving averages – 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day – signalling a strong uptrend and sustained buying interest.
Investor participation has also intensified, with delivery volumes on 30 Dec reaching 27.95 lakh shares, a staggering 212.24% increase over the five-day average. This surge in delivery volume reflects genuine accumulation rather than speculative trading, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
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Market Positioning and Directional Bets
The sharp rise in open interest alongside strong volume suggests that traders are increasingly taking directional bets on HPCL. The increase in OI by nearly 15% indicates fresh long positions or hedging activity, possibly anticipating further upside given the stock's breakout to new highs. The underlying value of ₹493 per share supports this view, as the stock price is trading close to this level, maintaining a tight correlation between derivatives and spot markets.
Given the sector's positive momentum and HPCL's dividend yield of 3.31%, investors appear confident in the company’s fundamentals and growth prospects. The market cap of ₹1,05,295.30 crore places HPCL firmly in the mid-cap category, with a Market Cap Grade of 2, indicating moderate size but strong liquidity and investor interest. The stock’s liquidity, sufficient for trade sizes up to ₹2.25 crore based on 2% of the five-day average traded value, ensures that institutional investors can participate without significant price impact.
Mojo Score Upgrade and Analyst Sentiment
Reflecting the positive developments, MarketsMOJO has upgraded Hindustan Petroleum’s Mojo Grade from Buy to Strong Buy as of 30 Dec 2025, with an impressive Mojo Score of 81.0. This upgrade signals improved confidence in the stock’s near-term prospects, driven by robust price action, rising volumes, and favourable derivatives activity. The stock’s day change of 5.65% further corroborates this bullish stance.
Analysts highlight that the combination of technical strength, rising open interest, and sectoral tailwinds positions HPCL well for continued gains. However, investors should remain mindful of global oil price volatility and regulatory developments that could impact the oil sector dynamics.
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Implications for Investors
The surge in derivatives open interest combined with strong price and volume action suggests that Hindustan Petroleum is attracting renewed investor focus. The stock’s ability to outperform its sector and the broader market on a day of positive momentum indicates robust underlying demand. Investors looking for exposure to the oil sector’s recovery may find HPCL’s current setup compelling, especially given its attractive dividend yield and upgraded Mojo Grade.
However, as with all commodities-linked stocks, investors should monitor crude oil price trends, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy changes that could influence earnings and valuations. The current derivatives activity points to a consensus leaning towards further upside, but volatility remains a factor to consider in position sizing and risk management.
Summary
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. has demonstrated a marked increase in open interest and trading volumes in its derivatives segment, coinciding with a breakout to a new 52-week high and strong technical indicators. The stock’s upgraded Mojo Grade to Strong Buy and a high Mojo Score of 81.0 reflect growing analyst confidence. With solid fundamentals, sector tailwinds, and active market positioning, HPCL is poised for potential further gains, making it a key stock to watch in the oil sector.
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