ITC Ltd. Sees Heavy Value Trading Amid Declining Momentum and Institutional Caution

High-Value Trading and Price Movement

On 2 January 2026, ITC Ltd. emerged as one of the most actively traded stocks by value on the Indian equity markets. The total traded volume stood at 4.78 crore shares, translating into an impressive traded value of approximately ₹1,66,702.14 lakhs (₹1,667.02 crores). Despite this robust liquidity, the stock price declined sharply, closing at ₹348.90, down 3.85% from the previous close of ₹363.85. Intraday, the stock touched a low of ₹345.25, marking a new 52-week low and signalling intensified bearish momentum.

The weighted average price during the session was closer to the day’s low, indicating that a majority of the volume was executed near the bottom end of the price range. This suggests strong selling interest, particularly from institutional participants who typically transact in large blocks near key support levels.

Technical Indicators and Moving Averages

From a technical standpoint, ITC is trading below all major moving averages — 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — underscoring a sustained downtrend. The stock’s failure to hold above these critical technical levels reflects weakening price momentum and a lack of short-term buying support. The consecutive two-day decline has resulted in a cumulative return loss of 13.67%, further emphasising the negative sentiment prevailing among traders and investors.

Sectoral and Market Context

The broader Cigarettes/Tobacco sector, to which ITC belongs, also experienced a downturn, falling by 3.84% on the same day. This sectoral weakness, coupled with ITC’s underperformance relative to the Sensex—which gained 0.32%—highlights the stock’s vulnerability amid sector-specific headwinds. The FMCG industry, known for its defensive characteristics, is currently facing pressure from regulatory concerns and shifting consumer preferences, which may be contributing to the subdued investor appetite.

Institutional Interest and Delivery Volumes

Investor participation in ITC shares has notably increased, with delivery volumes on 1 January 2026 surging to 15.66 crore shares. This represents a staggering 969.83% rise compared to the five-day average delivery volume, signalling heightened institutional activity. However, the nature of this participation appears skewed towards selling, as evidenced by the price decline despite the large volumes traded.

Liquidity remains robust, with the stock’s traded value comfortably supporting trade sizes up to ₹56.84 crores based on 2% of the five-day average traded value. This liquidity profile ensures that institutional investors can execute sizeable orders without significant market impact, yet the persistent price weakness suggests a predominance of sell-side pressure.

Mojo Score and Market Cap Analysis

ITC’s current MarketsMOJO score stands at 46.0, categorised under a ‘Sell’ grade, a downgrade from the previous ‘Hold’ rating as of 29 December 2025. This downgrade reflects deteriorating fundamentals and technical outlooks, signalling caution to investors. The company’s market capitalisation remains substantial at ₹4,36,947.47 crores, classifying it as a large-cap stock. Despite its size and sectoral prominence, the recent negative momentum has overshadowed its defensive qualities.

Comparative Performance and Outlook

In comparison to the broader market, ITC’s one-day return of -4.15% underperformed the Cigarettes/Tobacco sector’s -3.57% and the Sensex’s positive 0.32% gain. This relative weakness highlights the stock’s vulnerability amid sectoral and macroeconomic challenges. The persistent fall below all key moving averages and the breach of a 52-week low raise concerns about further downside risk in the near term.

Investors should closely monitor upcoming quarterly results and regulatory developments impacting the tobacco and FMCG sectors. Additionally, any shifts in institutional holdings or changes in delivery volumes could provide early signals of a potential reversal or continuation of the current trend.

Investor Takeaway

ITC Ltd.’s recent trading session underscores a critical juncture for the stock. The combination of heavy value turnover, a fresh 52-week low, and a downgrade in its Mojo grade to ‘Sell’ signals caution for investors. While the company’s large-cap status and sector leadership provide some defensive cushion, the prevailing technical weakness and institutional selling pressure cannot be ignored.

For investors currently holding ITC shares, it is prudent to reassess portfolio allocations in light of the deteriorating trend and consider peer comparisons to identify potentially superior investment opportunities within FMCG or other sectors. New entrants should await confirmation of a technical bottom or positive fundamental catalysts before initiating positions.

Overall, ITC’s trading activity on 2 January 2026 reflects a market environment where value turnover is dominated by selling interest, and institutional investors appear to be reducing exposure amid sectoral headwinds and regulatory uncertainties.

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