Stock Price Movement and Market Context
On 8 December 2025, Modern Dairies’ share price touched an intraday low of Rs.37, representing a 3.97% decline during the trading session. This new 52-week low comes as the stock underperformed its sector by 2.8% on the day. The stock is currently trading below all key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, indicating sustained downward momentum.
In contrast, the broader market index, Sensex, experienced a decline of 0.48%, closing at 85,299.12 points after falling 325.72 points from a flat opening. Notably, Sensex remains close to its 52-week high of 86,159.02, trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which suggests a generally bullish market environment despite the setback for Modern Dairies.
Comparative Performance Over One Year
Modern Dairies’ stock has recorded a negative return of 42.92% over the past year, a stark contrast to the Sensex’s positive return of 4.41% during the same period. This divergence highlights the stock’s relative weakness within the FMCG sector and the broader market. The 52-week high for Modern Dairies was Rs.73.99, underscoring the extent of the decline to the current low.
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Financial Metrics and Valuation Insights
Modern Dairies’ long-term net sales have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -14.86% over the last five years, indicating a contraction in revenue streams. The company’s average Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) stands at 7.41%, which reflects modest profitability relative to the total capital invested, including both equity and debt.
In the latest six-month period ending September 2025, the company reported a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs.3.34 crore, which represents a decline of 53.48% compared to the previous corresponding period. This flat result further illustrates the subdued earnings environment for Modern Dairies.
Despite these challenges, the company’s ROCE figure of 14.8 and an enterprise value to capital employed ratio of 2.1 suggest a valuation that some may consider fair. However, the stock is trading at a premium relative to the average historical valuations of its peers, which may contribute to the current market hesitation.
Profitability and Market Returns
While the stock price has declined by 42.92% over the past year, Modern Dairies’ profits have risen by 28.4% during the same period. This divergence between profit growth and share price performance is reflected in the company’s price/earnings to growth (PEG) ratio of 0.3, indicating that the market valuation does not fully align with recent profit trends.
The majority ownership of the company remains with promoters, which continues to influence corporate governance and strategic decisions.
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Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment
The stock’s position below all major moving averages signals persistent downward pressure. This technical setup often reflects cautious sentiment among market participants. Meanwhile, the broader FMCG sector and Sensex have maintained relatively stable or positive trends, underscoring the stock’s divergence from sectoral and market movements.
Modern Dairies’ underperformance relative to the BSE500 index, which has generated a return of 0.87% over the last year, further highlights the stock’s challenges in keeping pace with broader market gains.
Summary of Key Data Points
To summarise, Modern Dairies’ stock has reached a 52-week low of Rs.37, with a one-year return of -42.92% against the Sensex’s 4.41%. The company’s net sales have contracted at a CAGR of -14.86% over five years, while profitability metrics such as ROCE average 7.41%. Recent six-month PAT figures show a decline of 53.48%, and the stock trades below all major moving averages. Despite profit growth of 28.4% in the past year, the share price has not reflected this trend, resulting in a PEG ratio of 0.3. The stock’s valuation remains at a premium compared to peers, and promoter ownership continues to be significant.
These factors collectively contribute to the current market valuation and the stock’s position at its lowest price point in a year.
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