Current Price Action and Market Context
As of 4 February 2026, NHPC Ltd’s stock closed at ₹78.48, up from the previous close of ₹77.77. The intraday range saw a low of ₹77.55 and a high of ₹80.44, indicating some volatility within a relatively narrow band. The stock remains below its 52-week high of ₹92.30 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹71.01, suggesting a consolidation phase after recent price swings.
Comparatively, NHPC’s returns over various periods reveal a mixed performance against the benchmark Sensex. Over the past week, NHPC outperformed the Sensex with a 4.35% gain versus the index’s 2.30%. However, over the one-month horizon, the stock declined by 6.15%, underperforming the Sensex’s 2.36% drop. Year-to-date, NHPC’s return stands at -0.86%, slightly better than the Sensex’s -1.74%. Over longer periods, NHPC has demonstrated robust gains, with a 10-year return of 293.38% compared to Sensex’s 245.70%, underscoring its long-term growth potential despite recent volatility.
Technical Trend and Indicator Analysis
The technical trend for NHPC has shifted from bearish to mildly bearish, signalling a tentative improvement in momentum but still reflecting underlying caution. This nuanced shift is supported by a range of technical indicators:
- MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On the weekly chart, MACD is mildly bullish, suggesting some upward momentum in the near term. Conversely, the monthly MACD remains mildly bearish, indicating that longer-term momentum is still under pressure.
- RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows no clear signal on both weekly and monthly timeframes, hovering in a neutral zone. This lack of directional bias implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, reinforcing the sideways consolidation narrative.
- Bollinger Bands: Both weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands indicate a mildly bearish stance. The stock price is closer to the lower band, suggesting limited downside room but also signalling potential volatility if the price breaches support levels.
- Moving Averages: Daily moving averages are mildly bearish, with short-term averages likely below longer-term averages, reflecting recent downward pressure. This alignment typically signals caution for traders looking for sustained upward momentum.
- KST (Know Sure Thing): The KST oscillator is bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly chart, reinforcing the cautious tone in momentum indicators.
- Dow Theory: Weekly Dow Theory analysis is mildly bearish, while the monthly perspective shows no clear trend. This suggests that the stock is in a transitional phase, with neither bulls nor bears firmly in control.
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): Both weekly and monthly OBV show no trend, indicating that volume is not confirming price movements decisively. This lack of volume support may limit the strength of any price advances.
Overall, these technical signals paint a picture of a stock in cautious recovery but still vulnerable to downside risks. The mildly bearish trend suggests that while some buying interest has emerged, it is not yet strong enough to confirm a sustained uptrend.
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Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights
NHPC Ltd currently holds a Mojo Score of 35.0, which corresponds to a Mojo Grade of Sell. This represents a downgrade from its previous Hold rating as of 11 November 2025. The downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical momentum and the mixed signals from key indicators. The company’s market cap grade stands at 2, indicating a mid-cap status with moderate liquidity and market presence.
The downgrade to Sell suggests that investors should exercise caution and consider the risk-reward profile carefully before initiating or adding to positions. The technical indicators’ lack of strong bullish confirmation supports this cautious stance.
Long-Term Performance and Sector Context
Despite recent technical challenges, NHPC’s long-term performance remains impressive. Over five years, the stock has delivered a return of 233.25%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 66.63% gain. Over ten years, the outperformance is even more pronounced, with NHPC returning 293.38% versus the Sensex’s 245.70%. This long-term strength is underpinned by NHPC’s position in the power sector, which benefits from steady demand and government support for renewable and hydroelectric projects.
However, the power sector itself is facing headwinds from regulatory changes, fluctuating fuel costs, and evolving energy policies. NHPC’s technical signals reflect these uncertainties, with momentum oscillators indicating a cautious outlook.
Price Momentum and Moving Averages
The daily moving averages for NHPC are mildly bearish, indicating that short-term price action is under pressure. The stock’s current price of ₹78.48 is below key moving averages, which often act as resistance levels. This suggests that any upward moves may face selling pressure near these averages, limiting immediate upside potential.
Meanwhile, the weekly MACD’s mildly bullish signal hints at some underlying strength, but the monthly MACD’s bearish tone tempers enthusiasm. The RSI’s neutral stance further confirms that the stock is in a consolidation phase, lacking clear directional momentum.
Volume and Trend Confirmation
On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings show no clear trend on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating that volume is not confirming price movements. This absence of volume support is a warning sign for investors, as strong trends typically require volume confirmation to sustain momentum.
The Dow Theory’s mildly bearish weekly outlook and no trend monthly reading reinforce the view that NHPC is in a technical limbo, with neither bulls nor bears dominating decisively.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
NHPC Ltd’s current technical profile suggests a cautious approach for investors. The mildly bearish trend, combined with mixed signals from MACD, RSI, and moving averages, indicates that the stock is in a consolidation phase with limited near-term upside. The lack of volume confirmation and the downgrade to a Sell rating reinforce the need for prudence.
Long-term investors may find value in NHPC’s strong historical returns and sector fundamentals, but short-term traders should be wary of potential volatility and the absence of clear bullish momentum. Monitoring key support levels near ₹71 and resistance around ₹80 will be critical in assessing the stock’s next directional move.
In summary, NHPC Ltd is navigating a complex technical landscape with signs of tentative recovery but persistent caution. Investors should weigh the mixed technical signals carefully and consider alternative opportunities within the power sector and broader market.
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