NMDC Steel Gains 7.15%: Technical Shifts and Fundamental Challenges Shape the Week

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NMDC Steel Ltd delivered a robust weekly gain of 7.15%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 1.62% rise during the week ending 30 January 2026. The stock’s upward momentum was driven by a technical upgrade from MarketsMojo and a shift to mild bullishness amid mixed signals, reflecting cautious optimism despite ongoing fundamental challenges.

Key Events This Week

27 Jan: Stock surges 4.98% on strong volume and positive technical cues

28 Jan: Mojo Grade upgraded to Sell, signalling improved technical outlook

29 Jan: Mild bullish momentum confirmed amid mixed technical indicators

30 Jan: Stock retreats 2.82% as broader market dips

Week Open

Rs.39.58

Week Close

Rs.42.41

+7.15%

Week High

Rs.43.64

vs Sensex

+5.53%

27 January: Strong Start with 4.98% Gain

NMDC Steel Ltd opened the week on a positive note, closing at Rs.41.55, up 4.98% from the previous Friday’s close of Rs.39.58. The stock’s volume of 301,589 shares indicated healthy investor interest. This gain outpaced the Sensex’s 0.50% rise to 35,786.84, signalling early strength in the stock relative to the broader market. The price movement reflected growing optimism, likely influenced by improving technical indicators and anticipation of upcoming rating revisions.

28 January: Mojo Grade Upgrade Spurs Further Gains

On 28 January, NMDC Steel Ltd’s stock price rose by 3.08% to close at Rs.42.83, supported by increased volume of 352,093 shares. This day marked a significant development as MarketsMOJO upgraded the company’s Mojo Grade from ‘Strong Sell’ to ‘Sell’. The upgrade was driven by a shift in technical trends, including bullish daily moving averages and a positive weekly Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator. Despite lingering fundamental concerns such as negative EBITDA and weak profitability, the technical improvement provided a catalyst for the stock’s advance.

29 January: Mixed Technical Signals Amid Mild Bullish Momentum

The stock continued its upward trajectory on 29 January, closing at Rs.43.64, a 1.89% gain on volume of 334,293 shares. This marked the week’s highest close, reflecting a mild bullish momentum. Technical indicators presented a nuanced picture: daily moving averages turned bullish and the weekly KST indicator confirmed positive momentum, yet the weekly and monthly MACD remained mildly bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered in neutral territory, while Bollinger Bands suggested sideways to bearish trends on longer timeframes. The Dow Theory also indicated mild bearishness on weekly and monthly charts, underscoring the complexity of the stock’s technical outlook.

Despite these mixed signals, NMDC Steel outperformed the Sensex’s modest 0.22% gain, reinforcing the stock’s relative strength within the ferrous metals sector. The Mojo Score of 39.0 and the ‘Sell’ rating reflect cautious optimism, balancing technical improvements against fundamental challenges such as negative EBITDA and declining profitability.

30 January: Profit Taking Amid Market Dip

On the final trading day of the week, NMDC Steel Ltd’s stock retreated 2.82% to close at Rs.42.41 on volume of 319,044 shares. This decline coincided with a broader market pullback, as the Sensex fell 0.22% to 36,185.03. The stock’s correction after three consecutive days of gains is consistent with profit-taking behaviour and the mixed technical signals that continue to temper enthusiasm. Despite the dip, the stock closed the week well above its opening price, maintaining a strong weekly performance relative to the benchmark index.

Weekly Price Performance: NMDC Steel Ltd vs Sensex

Date	Stock Price	Day Change	Sensex	Day Change
2026-01-27	Rs.41.55	+4.98%	35,786.84	+0.50%
2026-01-28	Rs.42.83	+3.08%	36,188.16	+1.12%
2026-01-29	Rs.43.64	+1.89%	36,266.59	+0.22%
2026-01-30	Rs.42.41	-2.82%	36,185.03	-0.22%

Key Takeaways

Positive Signals: NMDC Steel Ltd’s technical upgrade from ‘Strong Sell’ to ‘Sell’ and the shift to mild bullish momentum on daily and weekly indicators have supported a strong weekly gain of 7.15%. The stock outperformed the Sensex by 5.53 percentage points, reflecting relative strength amid a mixed market environment. Institutional holding of 20.48% provides some stability, and recent quarterly sales growth of 37.7% signals operational resilience.

Cautionary Notes: Despite technical improvements, fundamental challenges persist. The company’s negative EBITDA, high Debt to EBITDA ratio, and declining operating profit over five years highlight financial stress. Mixed technical signals on monthly charts, including bearish MACD and Bollinger Bands, suggest the uptrend is not yet firmly established. The Mojo Score of 39.0 and ‘Sell’ rating reflect these risks, advising prudence.

Conclusion

NMDC Steel Ltd’s week was characterised by a notable technical turnaround that propelled the stock to a 7.15% gain, significantly outperforming the Sensex. The MarketsMOJO upgrade to a ‘Sell’ rating from ‘Strong Sell’ underscores a cautious optimism driven by improved short-term momentum. However, the company’s fundamental weaknesses and mixed longer-term technical indicators temper enthusiasm. Investors should monitor upcoming quarterly results and technical developments closely to assess whether the stock can sustain its recovery or if underlying financial challenges will continue to weigh on performance.

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