Transport Corporation of India Ltd Sees Technical Momentum Shift Amid Mixed Indicators

Technical Trend Overview

The stock’s technical trend has transitioned from outright bearish to mildly bearish, signalling a tentative improvement in price momentum. On the daily chart, moving averages continue to exert bearish pressure, with the current price of ₹1,039.50 slightly above the previous close of ₹1,035.40, marking a day change of 0.40%. However, this modest gain contrasts with the broader technical landscape, where several indicators present mixed signals.

MACD and Momentum Oscillators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator offers a split view. On a weekly basis, MACD is mildly bullish, suggesting some upward momentum in the short term. Conversely, the monthly MACD remains mildly bearish, indicating that longer-term momentum has yet to fully recover. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights the stock’s current phase of consolidation and uncertainty.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator aligns with this mixed picture. Weekly KST readings are mildly bullish, reinforcing the short-term positive momentum, while monthly KST remains mildly bearish, consistent with the MACD’s longer-term caution.

Relative Strength Index and Bollinger Bands

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for directional movement but no clear momentum bias.

Bollinger Bands add further complexity. Weekly Bollinger Bands indicate a mildly bearish stance, reflecting price pressure near the lower band and potential volatility. Monthly Bollinger Bands are outright bearish, signalling sustained downward pressure over the longer term. This contrast underscores the stock’s struggle to break out decisively from its recent trading range.

Volume and Trend Confirmation

On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings also diverge across timeframes. Weekly OBV is mildly bearish, suggesting that volume trends are not strongly supporting price advances in the short term. However, monthly OBV is mildly bullish, indicating that longer-term accumulation may be underway despite recent price weakness.

Dow Theory assessments reinforce this cautious stance. Weekly Dow Theory shows no clear trend, while monthly readings remain mildly bearish. This lack of a confirmed trend on the weekly scale suggests that investors should remain vigilant for further developments before committing to a directional bias.

Price Range and Historical Context

TCI’s current price of ₹1,039.50 sits comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹875.20 but remains well below its 52-week high of ₹1,299.05. Today’s intraday range between ₹1,031.30 and ₹1,057.60 reflects moderate volatility, with the stock testing resistance levels near the upper end of this range.

Comparative Returns and Market Performance

When compared with the Sensex, TCI’s returns present a mixed picture. Over the past week, the stock outperformed the benchmark with a 1.94% gain versus the Sensex’s 0.30% decline. Over one month, TCI’s 4.61% return also surpassed the Sensex’s 0.87%. However, year-to-date returns show a slight underperformance, with TCI down 3.45% compared to the Sensex’s 3.49% decline.

Longer-term returns are more favourable for TCI. Over one year, the stock gained 6.32%, trailing the Sensex’s 10.25% rise but still positive. Over three years, TCI’s 60.11% return significantly outpaced the Sensex’s 38.32%, and over five and ten years, the stock delivered exceptional gains of 327.95% and 372.07%, respectively, compared to the Sensex’s 67.51% and 255.22%. These figures highlight TCI’s strong long-term growth trajectory despite recent technical headwinds.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

MarketsMOJO assigns Transport Corporation of India Ltd a Mojo Score of 50.0, reflecting a Hold rating. This represents an upgrade from the previous Sell grade as of 23 February 2026, signalling a cautious but improving outlook. The Market Cap Grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers in the transport services sector.

The Hold rating aligns with the mixed technical signals observed. While short-term momentum indicators such as weekly MACD and KST suggest mild bullishness, longer-term monthly indicators and moving averages remain bearish or mildly bearish. This divergence advises investors to monitor developments closely before increasing exposure.

Sector and Industry Context

Within the transport services sector, TCI’s performance is reflective of broader industry challenges and opportunities. The sector has faced headwinds from fluctuating fuel costs, regulatory changes, and evolving logistics demands. However, TCI’s long-term outperformance relative to the Sensex underscores its resilience and capacity to capitalise on structural growth trends in Indian logistics and transportation.

Technical Outlook and Investor Considerations

From a technical perspective, the current mildly bearish trend suggests that the stock may face resistance near the ₹1,050 to ₹1,060 range, with support levels likely around ₹1,000. The absence of strong RSI signals indicates that the stock is not yet overextended, allowing for potential upside if bullish momentum strengthens.

Investors should watch for confirmation of trend shifts through sustained weekly MACD and KST improvements, alongside a break above key moving averages on the daily chart. Conversely, a failure to hold support levels could see the stock revisit its 52-week lows near ₹875.

Conclusion

Transport Corporation of India Ltd currently navigates a complex technical landscape characterised by a shift from bearish to mildly bearish momentum. Short-term indicators provide cautious optimism, while longer-term signals counsel prudence. The stock’s strong historical returns and sector positioning offer a foundation for potential recovery, but investors should remain alert to evolving technical cues and broader market conditions.

Given the Hold rating and mixed technical signals, a balanced approach is advisable. Monitoring key support and resistance levels alongside volume trends will be critical in assessing the stock’s next directional move. For investors seeking exposure to the transport services sector, TCI remains a noteworthy contender, albeit one requiring careful timing and risk management.

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