Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Stock Recommendation | Score, Valuation, Technicals & Financial Trend

Score

Click here to find our call on this stock

Strong Sell

Sell

Hold

Buy

Strong Buy

Comparison

Company

Score

Quality

Valuation

Financial

Technical

Old Republic International Corp.

Essent Group Ltd.

First American Financial Corp.

Radian Group Inc.

Stewart Information Services Corp.

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Investors Title Co.

Fidelity National Financial, Inc.

Ambac Financial Group, Inc.

Tiptree, Inc.

MBIA, Inc.

Why is Assured Guaranty Ltd. ?

Strong Long Term Fundamental Strength with a 38.31% CAGR growth in Operating Profits

Healthy long term growth as Operating profit has grown by an annual rate of 38.31%

OPERATING CASH FLOW(Y) Highest at USD 228 MM
NET PROFIT(HY) At USD 288.88 MM has Grown at 59.34%
DEBT-EQUITY RATIO (HY) Lowest at 28.14 %

With ROE of 8.51%, it has a fair valuation with a 0.75 Price to Book Value

The stock is trading at a premium compared to its peers' average historical valuations
Over the past year, while the stock has generated a return of -0.33%, its profits have fallen by -38.7%

Consistent Underperformance against the benchmark over the last 3 years

Along with generating -0.33% returns in the last 1 year, the stock has also underperformed S&P 500 in each of the last 3 annual periods

Real-Time Research Report

Verdict Report

How much should you hold?

Overall Portfolio exposure to Assured Guaranty Ltd. should be less than 10%
Overall Portfolio exposure to Insurance should be less than 30%

(If sector exposure > 30%, please use optimiser tool to see which are the best stocks to hold in Insurance)

When to exit? - We will constantly monitor the company and suggest at the appropriate time to exit from the stock

Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. for you?

Low Risk, Medium Return

Absolute

Risk Adjusted

Volatility

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

-1.53%

0.82

23.41%

S&P 500

20.17%

0.70

20.15%

Quality

Management Risk

Growth

Capital Structure

Quality grade scale :

Below Average, Average, Good, Excellent

Quality key factors

Factor

Value

Sales Growth (5y)

-0.66%

EBIT Growth (5y)

19.74%

EBIT to Interest (avg)

0.61

Debt to EBITDA (avg)

1,832.17

Net Debt to Equity (avg)

0.33

Sales to Capital Employed (avg)

0.11

Tax Ratio

22.61%

Dividend Payout Ratio

13.11%

Pledged Shares

Institutional Holding

96.97%

ROCE (avg)

1.23%

ROE (avg)

8.86%

Valuation

Valuation Scorecard

Valuation grade scale :

Very Risky, Risky, Very Expensive, Expensive, Fair, Attractive, Very Attractive

Valuation Key Factors

Factor

Value

P/E Ratio

Industry P/E

Price to Book Value

0.63

EV to EBIT

EV to EBITDA

EV to Capital Employed

0.66

EV to Sales

4.38

PEG Ratio

0.10

Dividend Yield

230.23%

ROCE (Latest)

ROE (Latest)

9.99%

Technicals

Technical key factors

Indicator

Weekly

Monthly

MACD

Bearish

Mildly Bearish

RSI

No Signal

Bollinger Bands

Mildly Bearish

Moving Averages

Bearish (Daily)

KST

Bearish

Mildly Bearish

Dow Theory

No Trend

OBV

No Trend

Mildly Bearish

Technical Indicator Scale: Bearish, Mildly Bearish, Sideways, Mildly Bullish, Bullish Turned

Technical Movement

Analyse All Technical Factors

Financial Trend

Financial Trend Scorecard

Financial Trend scale:

Very Negative, Negative, Flat, Positive, Very Positive, Outstanding

9What is working for the Company

OPERATING CASH FLOW(Y)

Highest at USD 362 MM

DEBT-EQUITY RATIO (HY)

Lowest at 28.35 %

DIVIDEND PER SHARE(HY)

Highest at USD 0

RAW MATERIAL COST(Y)

Fallen by 0% (YoY

NET SALES(Q)

At USD 286 MM has Grown at 23.68%

-8What is not working for the Company

OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN(Q)

Lowest at 31.82 %

PRE-TAX PROFIT(Q)

Lowest at USD 50 MM

NET PROFIT(Q)

Lowest at USD 104 MM

EPS(Q)

Lowest at USD 1.92

Here's what is working for Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Operating Cash Flow

Highest at USD 362 MM and Grown

In each year in the last three years

MOJO Watch

The company has generated higher cash revenues from business operations

Operating Cash Flows (USD MM)

Debt-Equity Ratio

Lowest at 28.35 % and Grown

In each half year in the last five Semi-Annual periods

MOJO Watch

The company has been reducing its borrowing as compared to equity capital

Debt-Equity Ratio

Dividend per share

Highest at USD 0 and Grown

In each year in the last five years

MOJO Watch

Company is distributing higher dividend from profits generated

DPS (USD)

Net Sales

At USD 286 MM has Grown at 23.68%

over average net sales of the previous four periods of USD 231.25 MM

MOJO Watch

Near term sales trend is positive

Net Sales (USD MM)

Raw Material Cost

Fallen by 0% (YoY)

MOJO Watch

The company's ability to pass on the cost of raw materials to customers has improved; this may lead to a rise in profit margin

Raw Material Cost as a percentage of Sales

Here's what is not working for Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Pre-Tax Profit

At USD 50 MM has Fallen at -66.04%

over average net sales of the previous four periods of USD 147.25 MM

MOJO Watch

Near term Pre-Tax Profit trend is very negative

Pre-Tax Profit (USD MM)

Operating Profit Margin

Lowest at 31.82 %

in the last five periods

MOJO Watch

Company's profit margin has deteriorated

Operating Profit to Sales

Pre-Tax Profit

Lowest at USD 50 MM

in the last five periods

MOJO Watch

Near term Pre-Tax Profit trend is negative

Pre-Tax Profit (USD MM)

Net Profit

Lowest at USD 104 MM

in the last five periods

MOJO Watch

Near term Net Profit trend is negative

Net Profit (USD MM)

Net Profit

At USD 104 MM has Fallen at -20.9%

over average net sales of the previous four periods of USD 131.48 MM

MOJO Watch

Near term Net Profit trend is negative

Net Profit (USD MM)

EPS

Lowest at USD 1.92

in the last five periods

MOJO Watch

Declining profitability; company has created lower earnings for shareholders

EPS (USD)