Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Stock Recommendation | Score, Valuation, Technicals & Financial Trend

Score

Click here to find our call on this stock

Strong Sell

Sell

Hold

Buy

Strong Buy

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Comparison

Company

Score

Quality

Valuation

Financial

Technical

First American Financial Corp.

Stewart Information Services Corp.

Old Republic International Corp.

Fidelity National Financial, Inc.

Essent Group Ltd.

Radian Group Inc.

Investors Title Co.

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

MBIA, Inc.

Tiptree, Inc.

Ambac Financial Group, Inc.

Why is Assured Guaranty Ltd. ?

Strong Long Term Fundamental Strength with a 38.31% CAGR growth in Operating Profits

Healthy long term growth as Operating profit has grown by an annual rate of 38.31%

OPERATING CASH FLOW(Y) Highest at USD 228 MM
NET PROFIT(HY) At USD 288.88 MM has Grown at 59.34%
DEBT-EQUITY RATIO (HY) Lowest at 28.14 %

With ROE of 8.51%, it has a fair valuation with a 0.75 Price to Book Value

The stock is trading at a premium compared to its peers' average historical valuations
Over the past year, while the stock has generated a return of -3.73%, its profits have fallen by -38.7%

Underperformed the market in the last 1 year

Even though the market (S&P 500) has generated returns of 12.94% in the last 1 year, the stock has hugely underperformed and has generate negative returns of -3.73% returns

Real-Time Research Report

Verdict Report

How much should you hold?

Overall Portfolio exposure to Assured Guaranty Ltd. should be less than 10%
Overall Portfolio exposure to Insurance should be less than 30%

(If sector exposure > 30%, please use optimiser tool to see which are the best stocks to hold in Insurance)

When to exit? - We will constantly monitor the company and suggest at the appropriate time to exit from the stock

Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. for you?

Low Risk, Medium Return

Absolute

Risk Adjusted

Volatility

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

-3.25%

0.76

23.52%

S&P 500

13.22%

0.64

20.20%

Quality

Management Risk

Growth

Capital Structure

Quality grade scale :

Below Average, Average, Good, Excellent

Quality key factors

Factor

Value

Sales Growth (5y)

-1.30%

EBIT Growth (5y)

38.31%

EBIT to Interest (avg)

0.61

Debt to EBITDA (avg)

1,832.17

Net Debt to Equity (avg)

0.33

Sales to Capital Employed (avg)

0.10

Tax Ratio

22.61%

Dividend Payout Ratio

17.72%

Pledged Shares

Institutional Holding

96.75%

ROCE (avg)

1.23%

ROE (avg)

8.86%

Valuation

Valuation Scorecard

Valuation grade scale :

Very Risky, Risky, Very Expensive, Expensive, Fair, Attractive, Very Attractive

Valuation Key Factors

Factor

Value

P/E Ratio

Industry P/E

Price to Book Value

0.75

EV to EBIT

EV to EBITDA

EV to Capital Employed

0.77

EV to Sales

5.14

PEG Ratio

Dividend Yield

181.70%

ROCE (Latest)

ROE (Latest)

8.51%

Technicals

Technical key factors

Indicator

Weekly

Monthly

MACD

Bullish

Mildly Bearish

RSI

No Signal

Bollinger Bands

Bullish

Moving Averages

Mildly Bearish (Daily)

KST

Bullish

Mildly Bearish

Dow Theory

Mildly Bullish

OBV

No Trend

Technical Indicator Scale: Bearish, Mildly Bearish, Sideways, Mildly Bullish, Bullish Turned

Technical Movement

Analyse All Technical Factors

Financial Trend

Financial Trend Scorecard

Financial Trend scale:

Very Negative, Negative, Flat, Positive, Very Positive, Outstanding

10What is working for the Company

OPERATING CASH FLOW(Y)

Highest at USD 228 MM

NET PROFIT(HY)

At USD 288.88 MM has Grown at 59.34%

DEBT-EQUITY RATIO (HY)

Lowest at 28.14 %

DIVIDEND PER SHARE(HY)

Highest at USD 0

RAW MATERIAL COST(Y)

Fallen by 0% (YoY

-7What is not working for the Company

NET PROFIT(9M)

At USD 306.88 MM has Grown at -44.03%

NET SALES(Q)

At USD 199 MM has Fallen at -10.56%

OPERATING PROFIT(Q)

Lowest at USD 77 MM

OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN(Q)

Lowest at 38.69 %

Here's what is working for Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Operating Cash Flow

Highest at USD 228 MM and Grown

In each year in the last three years

MOJO Watch

The company has generated higher cash revenues from business operations

Operating Cash Flows (USD MM)

Net Profit

At USD 288.88 MM has Grown at 59.34%

Year on Year (YoY)

MOJO Watch

Near term Net Profit trend is positive

Net Profit (USD MM)

Debt-Equity Ratio

Lowest at 28.14 % and Grown

In each half year in the last five Semi-Annual periods

MOJO Watch

The company has been reducing its borrowing as compared to equity capital

Debt-Equity Ratio

Dividend per share

Highest at USD 0 and Grown

In each year in the last five years

MOJO Watch

Company is distributing higher dividend from profits generated

DPS (USD)

Raw Material Cost

Fallen by 0% (YoY)

MOJO Watch

The company's ability to pass on the cost of raw materials to customers has improved; this may lead to a rise in profit margin

Raw Material Cost as a percentage of Sales

Here's what is not working for Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Net Sales

At USD 199 MM has Fallen at -10.56%

over average net sales of the previous four periods of USD 222.5 MM

MOJO Watch

Near term sales trend is negative

Net Sales (USD MM)

Operating Profit

Lowest at USD 77 MM

in the last five periods

MOJO Watch

Near term Operating Profit trend is negative

Operating Profit (USD MM)

Operating Profit Margin

Lowest at 38.69 %

in the last five periods

MOJO Watch

Company's profit margin has deteriorated

Operating Profit to Sales