Stock Price Movement and Market Context
The stock has been on a downward trajectory for the past two days, registering a cumulative fall of 1.58%. Today’s decline of 1.74% further extended this trend, with AGI Greenpac underperforming its sector by 2.27%. The current price of Rs.544.1 represents a sharp drop from its 52-week high of Rs.1008.3, reflecting a year-long negative return of 16.65% compared to the Sensex’s positive 9.70% gain over the same period.
AGI Greenpac’s share price is trading below all key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, signalling sustained bearish momentum. This contrasts with the broader market where the Sensex, despite a negative day, remains above its 200-day moving average, though it is currently below its 50-day moving average.
Financial Performance Highlights
The company’s recent quarterly results have been largely flat, contributing to the subdued investor sentiment. Profit Before Tax (PBT) excluding other income has declined by 8.70% to Rs.95.94 crores, while Earnings Per Share (EPS) for the quarter hit a low of Rs.11.04. Additionally, cash and cash equivalents at the half-year mark stand at Rs.15.41 crores, the lowest recorded in recent periods, indicating tighter liquidity conditions.
Despite these challenges, AGI Greenpac maintains a low average debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39 times, reflecting a conservative capital structure. Operating profit has demonstrated healthy long-term growth, increasing at an annual rate of 30.82%, which underscores the company’s ability to expand its core earnings over time.
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Valuation and Sector Positioning
AGI Greenpac’s Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) stands at a robust 16.7%, complemented by an attractive enterprise value to capital employed ratio of 1.5. These metrics suggest the company is valued at a discount relative to its peers’ historical averages. The Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7 further indicates that the stock’s valuation is modest in relation to its profit growth, which has risen by 14.7% over the past year despite the stock’s negative price performance.
With a market capitalisation of Rs.3,599 crores, AGI Greenpac is the second largest company in the packaging sector, trailing only Garware Hi-Tech. It accounts for 14.16% of the sector’s market cap and contributes 8.85% to the industry’s annual sales, which total Rs.2,627.76 crores.
Shareholding and Market Sentiment
The company’s promoter group remains the majority shareholder, maintaining significant control over corporate decisions. The recent downgrade in the Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell on 23 Oct 2025, with a current Mojo Score of 44.0, reflects a cautious stance based on the company’s recent performance and valuation metrics.
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Comparative Market Performance
Over the last year, AGI Greenpac has underperformed not only the Sensex but also the broader BSE500 index, which has delivered returns of 14.27%. This divergence highlights the stock’s relative weakness within the packaging sector and the wider market. The sector itself has experienced mixed performance, with AGI Greenpac’s share price decline contrasting with the steady growth in its operating profits.
On the day of the new 52-week low, the Sensex opened flat but subsequently declined by 363.15 points, or 0.48%, closing at 81,857.33. This broader market weakness has compounded the pressure on AGI Greenpac’s stock price, which is currently trading below all major moving averages, signalling a continuation of the downtrend in the near term.
Summary of Key Financial Metrics
To encapsulate, the company’s key financial indicators include:
- Market Capitalisation: Rs.3,599 crores
- 52-Week High/Low: Rs.1008.3 / Rs.544.1
- Annual Sales: Rs.2,627.76 crores
- Operating Profit Growth (Annual): 30.82%
- Profit Before Tax (Quarterly): Rs.95.94 crores, down 8.70%
- EPS (Quarterly): Rs.11.04
- Debt to Equity Ratio (Average): 0.39 times
- ROCE: 16.7%
- PEG Ratio: 0.7
These figures illustrate a company with solid underlying profitability and conservative leverage, yet facing headwinds reflected in its share price performance and recent earnings trends.
Conclusion
AGI Greenpac Ltd’s fall to a 52-week low of Rs.544.1 marks a notable point in its recent market journey, underscored by underwhelming quarterly results and a stock price that has lagged both sector and market indices. While the company maintains strong fundamentals in terms of operating profit growth and capital efficiency, the current valuation and market sentiment have weighed on its share price, resulting in a downgrade in its Mojo Grade to Sell. The stock’s position below all key moving averages further emphasises the prevailing cautious outlook among market participants.
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