AGI Greenpac Ltd Falls to 52-Week Low Amidst Continued Downtrend

Stock Performance and Market Context

On 20 Feb 2026, AGI Greenpac Ltd (Stock ID: 591083) recorded an intraday low of Rs.561.9, representing a 2.47% drop on the day and extending its losing streak to eight consecutive sessions. Over this period, the stock has declined by 14.71%, underperforming the packaging sector by 2.51% on the same day. The stock is trading below all key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, signalling sustained downward momentum.

In contrast, the Sensex rebounded sharply after a negative start, closing at 82,877.60, up 0.46% for the day and just 3.96% shy of its 52-week high of 86,159.02. The broader market’s resilience highlights the relative weakness of AGI Greenpac’s share price movement.

Over the past year, AGI Greenpac’s stock has delivered a negative return of 22.60%, markedly lagging the Sensex’s positive 9.44% gain and the BSE500’s 12.02% return. This divergence underscores the stock’s underperformance within the packaging sector and the wider market.

Financial Metrics and Recent Results

The company’s recent quarterly results have been largely flat, contributing to the subdued investor sentiment. Profit Before Tax (PBT) excluding other income stood at Rs.95.94 crores, reflecting a decline of 8.70% compared to previous quarters. Earnings Per Share (EPS) for the quarter dropped to Rs.11.04, the lowest recorded in recent periods.

Cash and cash equivalents at the half-year mark were reported at Rs.15.41 crores, the lowest level observed in recent financial disclosures. This reduction in liquidity metrics may have added to the cautious stance among market participants.

Valuation and Sector Positioning

Despite the recent price weakness, AGI Greenpac maintains a relatively attractive valuation profile. The company’s Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) stands at 16.7%, indicating efficient utilisation of capital. Its Enterprise Value to Capital Employed ratio is 1.6, suggesting the stock is trading at a discount relative to its peers’ historical valuations.

Operating profit has grown at an annualised rate of 30.82%, reflecting healthy long-term growth trends. Furthermore, profits have increased by 14.7% over the past year, even as the stock price declined, resulting in a Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.8. This metric points to a valuation that is not fully aligned with the company’s earnings growth trajectory.

AGI Greenpac’s debt profile remains conservative, with an average Debt to Equity ratio of 0.39 times, which is modest for the packaging industry. The company’s market capitalisation of Rs.3,715 crores places it as the second largest entity in the packaging sector, representing 14.41% of the sector’s total market value. Its annual sales of Rs.2,627.76 crores account for 8.85% of the industry’s revenue, underscoring its significant market presence.

Shareholding and Market Grade

The majority shareholding is held by promoters, providing a stable ownership structure. However, the company’s Mojo Score currently stands at 44.0, with a Mojo Grade of Sell, downgraded from Hold on 23 Oct 2025. The Market Cap Grade is rated 3, reflecting a mid-tier valuation within the broader market context.

Comparative Sector and Market Analysis

AGI Greenpac’s 52-week high was Rs.1,008.3, indicating a substantial decline of approximately 44.3% from that peak to the current 52-week low of Rs.561.9. This contrasts with the Sensex’s performance, which remains near its 52-week high, highlighting the stock’s relative weakness.

While mega-cap stocks have led the market recovery recently, AGI Greenpac’s share price has not mirrored this trend, reflecting sector-specific pressures and company-specific factors. The packaging sector itself has seen mixed performance, with AGI Greenpac’s market share and sales figures positioning it as a key player, yet its stock price has not kept pace with sectoral gains.

Overall, the stock’s recent trajectory reflects a combination of flat quarterly results, reduced cash reserves, and a downgrade in market grading, which have collectively contributed to the current valuation and price levels.

Summary

AGI Greenpac Ltd’s stock has reached a new 52-week low of Rs.561.9 amid a sustained period of price decline and underperformance relative to the broader market and sector indices. Despite healthy long-term profit growth and attractive valuation metrics, recent quarterly earnings and liquidity indicators have been subdued. The downgrade in Mojo Grade to Sell and the stock’s position below all major moving averages further illustrate the challenges faced by the company’s shares in the current market environment.

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