Recent Price Movement and Market Context
On 15 Dec 2025, Modern Dairies’ share price touched Rs.36, its lowest level in the past year. This price point represents a substantial drop from its 52-week high of Rs.73.99, indicating a near 51% reduction over the period. The stock underperformed its sector by 1.61% on the day, continuing a downward trend that has seen a cumulative return of -4.76% over the last three trading sessions.
In contrast, the broader market has shown resilience. The Sensex opened lower at 84,891.75, down 375.91 points or 0.44%, but was trading at 84,984.66 by midday, only 0.33% below the previous close. The index remains close to its 52-week high of 86,159.02, just 1.38% away, supported by bullish moving averages with the 50-day DMA above the 200-day DMA. Small-cap stocks have also shown modest gains, with the BSE Small Cap index rising by 0.07%.
Technical Indicators Signal Weak Momentum
Modern Dairies is trading below all key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages. This technical positioning suggests sustained downward momentum and a lack of short-term buying interest. The stock’s recent performance contrasts sharply with the broader market’s relative strength, highlighting company-specific factors influencing investor sentiment.
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Financial Performance Over the Past Year
The one-year performance of Modern Dairies reveals a return of -41.31%, significantly lagging behind the Sensex’s 3.47% gain over the same period. This underperformance is notable given the FMCG sector’s generally stable profile. Despite the stock’s price decline, the company’s profits have shown a rise of 28.4% over the past year, indicating some improvement in earnings despite market valuation pressures.
However, the company’s net sales have reflected a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -14.86% over the last five years, pointing to a contraction in revenue streams. The latest six-month period ending September 2025 showed a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs.3.34 crores, which represents a decline of 53.48% compared to the previous comparable period. This flat result in recent earnings contributes to the cautious market stance.
Profitability and Valuation Metrics
Modern Dairies’ average return on capital employed (ROCE) stands at 7.41%, indicating modest profitability relative to the capital invested. The company’s ROCE for the latest period is reported at 14.8%, which suggests some improvement but remains moderate within the FMCG sector context. The enterprise value to capital employed ratio is 2.1, reflecting a fair valuation level.
Despite the stock trading at a premium compared to its peers’ historical valuations, the price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio is 0.3, which may indicate that the market is pricing in slower growth expectations relative to earnings. The majority shareholding remains with promoters, maintaining control over company decisions.
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Sector and Market Comparison
Operating within the FMCG sector, Modern Dairies faces a competitive environment where many companies benefit from steady demand and resilient cash flows. The stock’s recent performance contrasts with the broader FMCG sector, which has generally maintained stability amid market fluctuations. The Sensex’s current position near its 52-week high and the outperformance of small-cap indices underscore a divergence between Modern Dairies and broader market trends.
The stock’s current trading below all major moving averages further emphasises the subdued momentum relative to sector peers. This technical and fundamental combination has contributed to the stock’s decline to its 52-week low.
Summary of Key Metrics
To summarise, Modern Dairies’ stock price at Rs.36 marks a significant low point in the past year, reflecting a combination of subdued revenue growth, moderate profitability, and valuation pressures. The company’s earnings growth contrasts with its declining share price, highlighting a complex market assessment. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex and FMCG sector benchmarks illustrates the challenges faced in regaining investor confidence.
While the broader market environment remains positive, with the Sensex trading above key moving averages and small caps showing gains, Modern Dairies’ share price trajectory remains distinct. Investors and market participants will continue to monitor the company’s financial disclosures and market developments closely.
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