Rajesh Exports Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Downturn

Technical Trend Shift and Price Movement

Rajesh Exports Ltd (stock code 137053) closed at ₹169.10 on 17 Feb 2026, down 4.97% from the previous close of ₹177.95. The stock’s intraday range was between ₹169.10 and ₹179.00, reflecting heightened volatility. This decline marks a continuation of the stock’s weakening momentum, with the technical trend shifting from mildly bearish to outright bearish.

The 52-week price range stands at ₹151.00 (low) and ₹239.00 (high), indicating that the current price is closer to the lower end of its annual spectrum. This proximity to the 52-week low underscores the downward pressure the stock is facing.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD is bearish, signalling that the short-term momentum is weakening relative to the longer-term trend. Conversely, the monthly MACD remains mildly bullish, suggesting some underlying strength over a longer horizon. However, the prevailing weekly bearishness tends to dominate near-term trading sentiment.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligns with this view, showing bearish momentum on the weekly chart but a mildly bullish stance monthly. This divergence between short- and long-term momentum indicators often precedes further price consolidation or a potential reversal, though current price action favours the bearish camp.

Relative Strength Index and Bollinger Bands

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently offers no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of directional RSI momentum suggests that the stock is neither oversold nor overbought, leaving room for further downside or sideways movement.

Bollinger Bands, which measure price volatility and potential reversal points, indicate bearish pressure on the weekly timeframe and mildly bearish conditions monthly. The stock price has been testing the lower band on the weekly chart, a sign that selling pressure is intensifying.

Moving Averages and Volume Trends

Daily moving averages reinforce the bearish outlook, with the stock trading below key averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This technical positioning typically signals a downtrend and discourages short-term buying interest.

On the volume front, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows no clear trend weekly but reveals a mildly bearish pattern monthly. This suggests that volume is not strongly supporting any upward price moves, further weakening the stock’s technical profile.

Dow Theory and Sector Context

According to Dow Theory assessments, the weekly trend for Rajesh Exports is mildly bullish, while the monthly trend is mildly bearish. This conflicting signal highlights the stock’s current indecision and the potential for volatility in the near term.

Within the Gems, Jewellery and Watches sector, Rajesh Exports is underperforming relative to peers and the broader market. The stock’s Mojo Score of 41.0 and a Mojo Grade of Sell, downgraded from Hold on 31 Dec 2025, reflect deteriorating technical and fundamental conditions. The Market Cap Grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier capitalisation but insufficient to shield the stock from current headwinds.

Comparative Returns Against Sensex

Rajesh Exports’ recent returns lag significantly behind the Sensex benchmark. Over the past week, the stock declined by 6.88%, compared to a modest 0.94% drop in the Sensex. The one-month return shows a 2.40% loss for the stock versus a 0.35% decline in the index. Year-to-date, the stock is down 8.07%, while the Sensex has fallen 2.28%.

Longer-term performance is even more concerning. Over three years, Rajesh Exports has lost 77.83%, while the Sensex gained 35.81%. The five-year and ten-year returns reveal losses of 64.70% and 76.47% respectively for the stock, contrasting sharply with Sensex gains of 59.83% and 259.08%. This stark underperformance highlights structural challenges facing the company and its sector.

Investment Implications and Outlook

Given the prevailing technical indicators and the stock’s relative weakness, investors should exercise caution. The bearish signals from MACD, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands suggest further downside risk in the near term. The absence of strong volume support and neutral RSI readings imply limited immediate recovery potential.

Rajesh Exports’ downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO aligns with this technical deterioration. The company’s position within the Gems, Jewellery and Watches sector, which has faced cyclical pressures and fluctuating demand, compounds the challenges.

Conclusion

Rajesh Exports Ltd is currently navigating a challenging technical landscape, with multiple indicators pointing towards bearish momentum. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex and sector peers, combined with a downgrade in its Mojo Grade to Sell, signals caution for investors. While some monthly indicators hint at mild bullishness, the dominant weekly and daily signals suggest that the stock may continue to face downward pressure in the short to medium term.

Investors should closely monitor technical developments and consider alternative opportunities within the Gems, Jewellery and Watches sector or broader market to optimise portfolio performance.

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