Rajesh Exports Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Indicator Shifts

Technical Trend Shift and Price Movement

Rajesh Exports Ltd’s share price closed at ₹162.00 on 20 Feb 2026, down 2.23% from the previous close of ₹165.70. The intraday range saw a high of ₹169.50 and a low of ₹161.20, reflecting heightened volatility. The stock remains significantly below its 52-week high of ₹239.00, while hovering just above its 52-week low of ₹151.00, underscoring a prolonged downtrend.

The technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling a deterioration in price momentum. This shift is corroborated by the daily moving averages, which are firmly bearish, indicating that the stock’s short-term price action is under pressure and likely to continue lower unless a reversal occurs.

MACD and Momentum Oscillators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD is bearish, confirming the recent downward momentum. However, the monthly MACD remains mildly bullish, suggesting some underlying longer-term strength or consolidation. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings points to a potential conflict between short-term selling pressure and longer-term investor sentiment.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers no clear signal on either the weekly or monthly charts, indicating that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold at present. This neutral RSI reading suggests that the current price levels may be a consolidation zone before the next directional move.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly timeframes are bearish, signalling that the stock price is trending towards the lower band. This typically indicates increased selling pressure and heightened volatility. The proximity to the lower band may also imply that the stock is approaching an oversold condition, but confirmation from other indicators is necessary before concluding a potential rebound.

Moving Averages and KST Indicator

The daily moving averages are decisively bearish, with the stock trading below key averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This alignment confirms the prevailing downtrend and suggests that any rallies may be met with resistance near these levels.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, a momentum oscillator, is bearish on the weekly chart but mildly bullish on the monthly chart. This again highlights the tension between short-term weakness and longer-term potential stability or recovery. Investors should monitor the KST closely for any crossover signals that might indicate a shift in momentum.

Volume and Dow Theory Signals

On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings are mildly bullish on the weekly timeframe but mildly bearish on the monthly scale. This suggests that while there is some accumulation in the short term, the broader trend remains under selling pressure. According to Dow Theory, the weekly trend is mildly bullish, but the monthly trend is mildly bearish, reinforcing the mixed signals and the need for cautious interpretation.

Comparative Performance Against Sensex

Rajesh Exports Ltd has underperformed the benchmark Sensex across multiple time horizons. Over the past week, the stock declined by 12.03%, compared to a modest 1.41% drop in the Sensex. The one-month return shows a 3.08% loss versus a 0.90% decline in the Sensex. Year-to-date, the stock is down 11.93%, significantly lagging the Sensex’s 3.19% fall.

Longer-term comparisons are even more stark. Over one year, Rajesh Exports has declined 1.16%, while the Sensex gained 8.64%. Over three years, the stock has plummeted 78.74%, in contrast to the Sensex’s 35.24% rise. The five-year and ten-year returns show similar disparities, with Rajesh Exports down 68.31% and 77.70% respectively, while the Sensex surged 62.11% and 247.96% over the same periods.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

MarketsMOJO assigns Rajesh Exports a Mojo Score of 41.0, reflecting a Sell rating, downgraded from a previous Hold as of 31 Dec 2025. The Market Cap Grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers. This downgrade aligns with the technical deterioration and weak price momentum, signalling caution for investors.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the Gems, Jewellery and Watches sector, Rajesh Exports faces sector-specific headwinds including fluctuating gold prices, regulatory challenges, and changing consumer demand. The sector’s cyclical nature and sensitivity to global economic conditions add complexity to the stock’s outlook. Investors should weigh these factors alongside technical signals when considering exposure.

Investor Takeaway

Rajesh Exports Ltd’s technical indicators collectively point to a bearish momentum shift, with short-term signals such as daily moving averages and weekly MACD confirming downward pressure. The mixed monthly signals suggest that while the stock may be consolidating, the prevailing trend remains weak. The significant underperformance relative to the Sensex over multiple timeframes further emphasises the challenges facing the stock.

Investors should exercise caution and consider the broader sectoral risks alongside technical signals. Those currently holding the stock may want to monitor key support levels near ₹151.00, the 52-week low, while prospective buyers might await clearer signs of trend reversal before committing capital.

Given the downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO and the deteriorating technical landscape, a defensive stance or portfolio rebalancing towards stronger sector peers or alternative opportunities may be prudent at this juncture.

Conclusion

In summary, Rajesh Exports Ltd is navigating a challenging phase marked by bearish technical momentum and weak price performance. While some longer-term indicators hint at mild bullishness, the dominant signals caution investors about potential further downside. Continuous monitoring of technical indicators and sector developments will be essential for timely investment decisions.

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