Recent Price Movement and Market Context
The stock closed at ₹181.75 on 10 Feb 2026, up from the previous close of ₹173.10, marking a robust intraday gain of 5.0%. The day’s trading range was relatively tight, with a low of ₹175.00 and a high matching the close at ₹181.75. This price action comes against a 52-week range of ₹151.00 to ₹239.00, indicating the stock is trading closer to its lower band over the past year.
Comparatively, Rajesh Exports has outperformed the Sensex in the short term, delivering a 14.45% return over the past week versus the Sensex’s 2.94%. Over one month, the stock gained 7.93%, significantly ahead of the Sensex’s 0.59%. However, longer-term returns paint a more challenging picture: a 1-year return of just 0.22% lags the Sensex’s 7.97%, while the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year returns show steep underperformance, with losses of 78.94%, 62.37%, and 74.92% respectively, compared to Sensex gains of 38.25%, 63.78%, and 249.97% over the same periods.
Technical Trend Shifts: From Bearish to Mildly Bearish
Technically, the stock’s trend has shifted from outright bearish to mildly bearish, signalling a tentative improvement but still cautioning investors. The daily moving averages remain bearish, indicating that short-term momentum is yet to confirm a sustained uptrend. This is consistent with the stock’s position below key moving averages, which often act as resistance levels in a downtrend.
The weekly MACD remains bearish, reflecting downward momentum on a medium-term basis. However, the monthly MACD has turned mildly bullish, suggesting that longer-term momentum may be stabilising or beginning to improve. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights the stock’s current technical uncertainty.
Momentum Indicators: RSI and KST Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions, reinforcing the notion of sideways or indecisive momentum in the stock’s price action.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligns with the MACD’s mixed signals: bearish on the weekly timeframe but mildly bullish on the monthly. This suggests that while short-term momentum remains weak, there could be a gradual improvement in the broader trend if positive momentum sustains.
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Bollinger Bands and Volume Trends
Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart indicate sideways movement, reflecting a consolidation phase with limited volatility expansion. On the monthly scale, the bands suggest a mildly bearish stance, implying that price pressure may be skewed towards the downside over the longer term.
Volume-based indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) show no discernible trend on either weekly or monthly charts, signalling a lack of strong accumulation or distribution by market participants. This absence of volume confirmation tempers enthusiasm for a sustained breakout or breakdown in the near term.
Dow Theory and Market Sentiment
According to Dow Theory, the weekly chart reveals no clear trend, while the monthly chart is mildly bearish. This aligns with the broader technical picture of tentative recovery overshadowed by persistent caution. The lack of a confirmed trend on the weekly timeframe suggests that investors should remain vigilant for potential reversals or continuation of the sideways movement.
Mojo Score and Ratings Update
Rajesh Exports currently holds a Mojo Score of 47.0, categorised as a Sell rating, downgraded from Hold as of 31 Dec 2025. This downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical and fundamental outlook, despite recent short-term price gains. The Market Cap Grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier valuation relative to peers in the Gems, Jewellery and Watches sector.
The downgrade is consistent with the mixed technical signals and the company’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over medium and long-term horizons. Investors should weigh these factors carefully when considering exposure to Rajesh Exports.
Investment Implications and Outlook
While the recent 5.0% daily gain and weekly outperformance versus the Sensex are encouraging, the overall technical landscape remains cautious. The coexistence of bearish daily moving averages and mildly bullish monthly MACD and KST indicators suggests that any upward momentum may be fragile and prone to reversal.
Investors should monitor key technical levels, including the 52-week low of ₹151.00 and the resistance near ₹239.00, to gauge the sustainability of any rally. The neutral RSI and sideways Bollinger Bands imply that the stock may continue to trade within a range until a decisive catalyst emerges.
Given the downgrade to a Sell rating and the company’s significant underperformance over the past 3 to 10 years, a cautious stance is advisable. Those holding Rajesh Exports shares might consider re-evaluating their positions in light of peer comparisons and sector dynamics.
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Sector and Industry Context
Rajesh Exports operates within the Gems, Jewellery and Watches sector, a space often sensitive to global economic cycles, currency fluctuations, and consumer sentiment. The sector has faced headwinds in recent years due to geopolitical uncertainties and changing consumer preferences, which have impacted demand and pricing power.
Within this context, Rajesh Exports’ technical signals reflect broader sector challenges, with the stock’s mixed momentum indicators mirroring the uncertain outlook for gems and jewellery demand. Investors should consider sector trends alongside company-specific technicals when making allocation decisions.
Summary of Technical Indicators
To recap, the key technical indicators for Rajesh Exports Ltd as of 10 Feb 2026 are:
- MACD: Weekly - Bearish; Monthly - Mildly Bullish
- RSI: Weekly and Monthly - No clear signal (neutral)
- Bollinger Bands: Weekly - Sideways; Monthly - Mildly Bearish
- Moving Averages: Daily - Bearish
- KST: Weekly - Bearish; Monthly - Mildly Bullish
- Dow Theory: Weekly - No Trend; Monthly - Mildly Bearish
- OBV: Weekly and Monthly - No Trend
This combination suggests a stock in technical limbo, with short-term bearishness tempered by tentative longer-term bullish signals. The lack of volume confirmation and neutral momentum indicators further complicate the outlook.
Conclusion
Rajesh Exports Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes highlight a stock caught between bearish pressures and emerging signs of stabilisation. While the 5.0% daily gain and weekly outperformance versus the Sensex offer some optimism, the overall technical and fundamental backdrop remains cautious. The downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO underscores the need for prudence.
Investors should closely monitor technical developments, particularly the interplay of moving averages and momentum indicators, alongside sector trends and peer performance. Until clearer signals emerge, a conservative approach is warranted for those considering Rajesh Exports as part of their portfolio.
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