Current Price and Market Context
As of 18 Feb 2026, Rajesh Exports closed at ₹166.10, down 1.77% from the previous close of ₹169.10. The stock’s intraday range spanned ₹161.60 to ₹170.55, indicating moderate volatility. It remains significantly below its 52-week high of ₹239.00, while comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹151.00. This price action underscores a persistent struggle to regain upward momentum amid bearish technical signals.
Technical Trend Overview
The technical trend for Rajesh Exports has shifted from a strongly bearish stance to a mildly bearish one, signalling a tentative stabilisation but no clear reversal. The daily moving averages remain bearish, reflecting downward pressure in the short term. Meanwhile, weekly and monthly indicators present a nuanced picture, with some oscillators hinting at mild bullishness.
MACD and Momentum Indicators
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reveals a divergence in timeframe signals. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains bearish, indicating that the stock’s momentum is still skewed towards selling pressure. However, the monthly MACD has turned mildly bullish, suggesting that longer-term momentum may be stabilising or preparing for a potential recovery phase. This divergence highlights the importance of timeframe analysis for investors considering entry or exit points.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Signals
RSI readings for Rajesh Exports are neutral, with no clear signals on either the weekly or monthly charts. This absence of overbought or oversold conditions implies that the stock is currently in a consolidation phase, lacking strong directional conviction. Investors should monitor RSI closely for any emerging divergences or breakouts that could signal a shift in momentum.
Bollinger Bands and Volatility
Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart remain bearish, indicating that the stock price is trading near the lower band and suggesting continued downward pressure or increased volatility. The monthly Bollinger Bands are mildly bearish, reinforcing the cautious outlook over a longer horizon. This technical setup points to a potential squeeze or breakout scenario, which traders should watch for in coming sessions.
Moving Averages and Trend Confirmation
Daily moving averages continue to signal bearishness, with the stock price trading below key averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This alignment confirms the prevailing downtrend in the short term. The lack of a crossover or upward momentum in these averages suggests that any recovery attempts may face resistance until a sustained volume-driven rally occurs.
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KST and Dow Theory Insights
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator presents a split view: weekly readings remain bearish, while monthly signals have improved to mildly bullish. This suggests that while short-term momentum is weak, there may be underlying strength building over the longer term. Dow Theory analysis echoes this mixed sentiment, with weekly trends mildly bullish but monthly trends mildly bearish, reinforcing the notion of a market in flux.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Volume Analysis
OBV trends provide further nuance, showing mildly bullish signals on the weekly chart but mildly bearish on the monthly chart. This divergence indicates that while recent trading volumes have supported some buying interest, the broader volume trend remains subdued. Investors should watch for a sustained increase in OBV to confirm any potential trend reversals.
Comparative Returns and Market Performance
Rajesh Exports’ recent returns have lagged behind the broader Sensex benchmark. Over the past week, the stock declined by 12.00%, sharply underperforming the Sensex’s modest 0.98% drop. The one-month return of -4.13% also trails the Sensex’s -0.14%. Year-to-date, the stock is down 9.70%, compared to the Sensex’s 2.08% decline. Over longer horizons, the stock’s performance is notably weak, with a 3-year return of -78.20% versus Sensex’s 36.80%, and a 10-year return of -77.07% against Sensex’s robust 256.90% gain. These figures highlight significant underperformance and structural challenges facing the company and sector.
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MarketsMOJO Ratings and Quality Grades
MarketsMOJO has downgraded Rajesh Exports from Hold to Sell as of 31 Dec 2025, reflecting deteriorating technical and fundamental outlooks. The company’s Mojo Score stands at 47.0, categorised as Sell, with a Market Cap Grade of 3, indicating mid-tier market capitalisation but limited growth prospects. This downgrade aligns with the technical indicators signalling bearish momentum and the company’s underwhelming price performance relative to the Sensex.
Investor Takeaway and Outlook
Rajesh Exports Ltd currently faces a challenging technical and fundamental environment. The mixed signals from MACD, KST, and Dow Theory suggest that while short-term momentum remains weak, there may be tentative signs of stabilisation over longer periods. However, the persistent bearishness in daily moving averages and Bollinger Bands, combined with significant underperformance versus the Sensex, warrants caution.
Investors should closely monitor volume trends and RSI for any emerging signals of reversal or consolidation. Given the current Sell rating and technical setup, a defensive stance or exploration of alternative investment opportunities within the Gems, Jewellery and Watches sector may be prudent until clearer bullish momentum emerges.
Summary of Technical Indicators:
- MACD: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Mildly Bullish
- RSI: Neutral on Weekly and Monthly
- Bollinger Bands: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Mildly Bearish
- Moving Averages: Daily Bearish
- KST: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Mildly Bullish
- Dow Theory: Weekly Mildly Bullish, Monthly Mildly Bearish
- OBV: Weekly Mildly Bullish, Monthly Mildly Bearish
Overall, Rajesh Exports remains under pressure, with technical parameters reflecting a cautious market stance. Investors should weigh these signals carefully against broader market conditions and sectoral trends before making allocation decisions.
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