Rajesh Exports Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Downturn

Technical Trend Shift and Price Momentum

Rajesh Exports’ technical trend has transitioned from mildly bearish to outright bearish, reflecting increased selling pressure and weakening price momentum. The stock closed at ₹157.30 on 25 Feb 2026, down 0.66% from the previous close of ₹158.35. Intraday volatility saw a high of ₹159.60 and a low of ₹152.55, hovering near its 52-week low of ₹151.00, while remaining significantly below its 52-week high of ₹239.00.

This price action underscores a lack of upward momentum, with the stock underperforming the broader market. Over the past week, Rajesh Exports declined by 5.44%, markedly worse than the Sensex’s 1.47% drop. The one-month return also remained negative at -3.53%, contrasting with the Sensex’s positive 0.84%. Year-to-date, the stock has fallen 14.49%, while the Sensex has gained 3.51%, highlighting a persistent underperformance trend.

MACD and Moving Averages Signal Bearishness

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD is bearish, indicating downward momentum in the near term. However, the monthly MACD remains mildly bullish, suggesting some longer-term support may exist. Despite this, the daily moving averages are firmly bearish, reinforcing the short-term negative outlook.

The daily moving averages, which include the 50-day and 200-day averages, have aligned below the current price, signalling a downtrend. This alignment typically discourages buying interest and may prompt further selling if the stock fails to reclaim these averages.

RSI and Bollinger Bands Confirm Weakness

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests the stock is neither oversold nor overbought, but the absence of bullish RSI momentum fails to provide a counterbalance to the bearish technicals.

Bollinger Bands, however, are bearish on both weekly and monthly timeframes. The stock price is trading near the lower band, indicating increased volatility and a potential continuation of the downward trend. This technical setup often reflects heightened selling pressure and a lack of buying support.

Additional Technical Indicators Paint a Cautious Picture

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligns with the MACD, showing bearish momentum on the weekly chart but a mildly bullish stance monthly. The Dow Theory assessment is mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly scales, reinforcing the overall negative sentiment.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows no clear trend weekly but is mildly bullish monthly, suggesting that while volume-based buying interest exists over the longer term, it is insufficient to reverse the prevailing downtrend.

Comparative Performance and Market Capitalisation

Rajesh Exports’ market capitalisation grade stands at 3, reflecting a mid-tier valuation within its sector. The company’s Mojo Score has declined to 41.0, with a corresponding Mojo Grade downgrade from Hold to Sell as of 31 Dec 2025. This downgrade signals a deteriorating outlook based on a comprehensive evaluation of fundamentals, technicals, and market sentiment.

Longer-term returns paint a challenging picture for investors. Over the past year, the stock has declined by 9.86%, while the Sensex has appreciated by 10.44%. Over three and five years, Rajesh Exports has suffered losses of 77.30% and 68.00% respectively, in stark contrast to the Sensex’s gains of 38.28% and 61.92%. The ten-year return is similarly negative at -77.69%, compared to the Sensex’s robust 256.13% growth. These figures highlight sustained underperformance and raise questions about the company’s ability to regain investor confidence.

Sectoral Context and Industry Challenges

The Gems, Jewellery and Watches sector has faced headwinds from fluctuating gold prices, changing consumer preferences, and global economic uncertainties. Rajesh Exports, as a prominent player, has not been immune to these pressures. The bearish technical signals may reflect broader sectoral weakness, compounded by company-specific challenges such as margin pressures and inventory management.

Investors should weigh these factors carefully, considering both the technical signals and fundamental backdrop before making investment decisions.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

Given the current technical landscape, Rajesh Exports Ltd is exhibiting clear signs of bearish momentum. The convergence of bearish MACD on weekly charts, daily moving averages trending downward, and Bollinger Bands indicating increased volatility near lower bands suggests that the stock may continue to face downward pressure in the near term.

While some monthly indicators such as the MACD and KST show mild bullishness, these are insufficient to offset the dominant negative signals. The lack of RSI confirmation further weakens the case for a near-term rebound.

Investors should approach Rajesh Exports with caution, particularly in light of its sustained underperformance relative to the Sensex and sector peers. Those holding the stock may consider risk management strategies, while prospective buyers might await clearer signs of technical recovery before committing capital.

In summary, the technical parameter changes reflect a shift towards a more bearish outlook for Rajesh Exports Ltd, underscoring the importance of monitoring momentum indicators closely in this volatile sector.

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